Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Saint Sinners, while the market favors TitanFlow (97%). 8 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Counter-Strike: Saint Sinners vs TitanFlow - Map 1 Winner

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Saint Sinners (89%) · Saint Sinners at 3.5¢ · $887 held · ends Nov 12

Saint Sinners4¢TitanFlow96¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Saint Sinners

Consensus Traders

Saint Sinners 89%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$887.39

Combined PnL

-$227.36

Smart Money Entry

39.5¢ → 3.5¢

-91% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidSaint Sinners at 4%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Saint Sinners

8 of 9 top traders (89%)Underdog side (market favors TitanFlow 97%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Saint Sinners4%

TitanFlow97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

TitanFlow1 trader

Total Value$468.4

Total Shares485

Combined PnL+$199.2

Saint Sinners8 traders

Total Value$306.52

Total Shares1,752

Combined PnL-$426.56

TitanFlow — 11%Saint Sinners — 89%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keykeylolw	TitanFlowavg 55.5¢	$269.2	$468.4	+$199.2	— 1-3 (4)
38 38791873984189CTR	Saint Sinnersavg 55.7¢	$156.33	$144.46	-$11.87	48% 2153-2339 (4492)
31 319113331313111ARB<$100	Saint Sinnersavg 31.1¢	$550.18	$112.45	-$75.39	57% 104-80 (184)
└ TitanFlow leg	TitanFlowavg 80¢	$60	$60.38	-$113.98
└ Saint Sinners leg	Saint Sinnersavg 31.1¢	$82.94	$52.08	+$38.59
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fCTR	Saint Sinnersavg 42.3¢	$145.55	$59.73	-$85.81	64% 93-53 (146)
TO topdogbigboiCTR	Saint Sinnersavg 33.8¢	$184.53	$35.44	-$149.08	37% 527-909 (1436)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Saint Sinnersavg 50.6¢	$20	$20.34	+$0.34	40% 3250-4894 (8144)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR	Saint Sinnersavg 35.4¢	$186.7	$18.44	-$168.27	32% 294-619 (913)
poshposhCTR<$100	Saint Sinnersavg 31.3¢	$27.17	$13.88	-$13.29	47% 509-574 (1083)
OD OddstormCTR<$100	Saint Sinnersavg 45.8¢	$10.36	$11.66	+$1.3	27% 52-141 (193)
RL RLWGCTR<$100	Saint Sinnersavg 49¢	$2.45	$2.58	+$0.13	66% 1739-895 (2634)

keykeylolw

TitanFlow

Invested

$269.2

Value

$468.4

PnL

+$199.2

Record

—

1-3 (4)

38791873984189CTR

Saint Sinners

Invested

$156.33

Value

$144.46

PnL

-$11.87

Record

48%

2153-2339 (4492)

319113331313111ARB<$100

Saint Sinners

Invested

$550.18

Value

$112.45

PnL

-$75.39

Record

57%

104-80 (184)

Both legs:

TitanFlow$6080¢-$113.98

Saint Sinners$82.9431.1¢+$38.59

0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fCTR

Saint Sinners

Invested

$145.55

Value

$59.73

PnL

-$85.81

Record

64%

93-53 (146)

topdogbigboiCTR

Saint Sinners

Invested

$184.53

Value

$35.44

PnL

-$149.08

Record

37%

527-909 (1436)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Saint Sinners

Invested

$20

Value

$20.34

PnL

+$0.34

Record

40%

3250-4894 (8144)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR

Saint Sinners

Invested

$186.7

Value

$18.44

PnL

-$168.27

Record

32%

294-619 (913)

poshposhCTR<$100

Saint Sinners

Invested

$27.17

Value

$13.88

PnL

-$13.29

Record

47%

509-574 (1083)

OddstormCTR<$100

Saint Sinners

Invested

$10.36

Value

$11.66

PnL

+$1.3

Record

27%

52-141 (193)

RLWGCTR<$100

Saint Sinners

Invested

$2.45

Value

$2.58

PnL

+$0.13

Record

66%

1739-895 (2634)

Research grade

AvoidSaint Sinners at 4%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Saint Sinners

8 of 9 top traders (89%)Underdog side (market favors TitanFlow 97%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Saint Sinners wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance4.7%

3.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2020.95

Max Loss

-$100.00

2120.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.