Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Spirit Academy Green, while the market favors SINQU (62%). 10 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Counter-Strike: SINQU vs Spirit Academy Green (BO1) - ESEA Advanced Europe Regular Season

10 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Spirit Academy Green (91%) · Spirit Academy Green at 38¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 13

SINQU62¢Spirit Academy Green38¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Spirit Academy Green

Consensus Traders

Spirit Academy Green 91%

Total Value

$1.7K

Combined PnL

-$94.9

Smart Money Entry

74.1¢ → 38¢

-49% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralSpirit Academy Green at 38%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Spirit Academy Green

10 of 11 top traders (91%)Underdog side (market favors SINQU 62%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

SINQU62%

Spirit Academy Green38%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Spirit Academy Green10 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares2,470

Combined PnL-$94.48

SINQU1 trader

Total Value$9.1

Total Shares17

Combined PnL-$0.42

Spirit Academy Green — 91%SINQU — 9%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GA GaditimaCTR	Spirit Academy Greenavg 76.5¢	$765	$775	+$10	46% 161-187 (348)
38 38791873984189CTR	Spirit Academy Greenavg 76.7¢	$766.51	$705	-$61.51	48% 2223-2408 (4631)
poshposhCTR	Spirit Academy Greenavg 61.3¢	$122.19	$87.04	-$35.15	47% 532-590 (1122)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Spirit Academy Greenavg 74.9¢	$71.96	$67.76	-$4.2	49% 1077-1133 (2210)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100	Spirit Academy Greenavg 49.4¢	$37.05	$34.88	-$2.17	41% 257-370 (627)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Spirit Academy Greenavg 73.4¢	$20.71	$19.9	-$0.81	51% 2545-2464 (5009)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Spirit Academy Greenavg 71¢	$19.17	$14.72	-$4.45	44% 389-495 (884)
SH shiifooCTR<$100	Spirit Academy Greenavg 73¢	$13.04	$12.59	-$0.45	62% 1364-828 (2192)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Spirit Academy Greenavg 40¢	$7.56	$12.36	+$4.8	37% 538-932 (1470)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Spirit Academy Greenavg 74¢	$11.1	$10.58	-$0.53	49% 1241-1273 (2514)
SU suntori<$100	SINQUavg 56¢	$9.52	$9.1	-$0.42	47% 1625-1826 (3451)

GaditimaCTR

Spirit Academy Green

Invested

$765

Value

$775

PnL

+$10

Record

46%

161-187 (348)

38791873984189CTR

Spirit Academy Green

Invested

$766.51

Value

$705

PnL

-$61.51

Record

48%

2223-2408 (4631)

poshposhCTR

Spirit Academy Green

Invested

$122.19

Value

$87.04

PnL

-$35.15

Record

47%

532-590 (1122)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Spirit Academy Green

Invested

$71.96

Value

$67.76

PnL

-$4.2

Record

49%

1077-1133 (2210)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100

Spirit Academy Green

Invested

$37.05

Value

$34.88

PnL

-$2.17

Record

41%

257-370 (627)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Spirit Academy Green

Invested

$20.71

Value

$19.9

PnL

-$0.81

Record

51%

2545-2464 (5009)

lryyyCTR<$100

Spirit Academy Green

Invested

$19.17

Value

$14.72

PnL

-$4.45

Record

44%

389-495 (884)

shiifooCTR<$100

Spirit Academy Green

Invested

$13.04

Value

$12.59

PnL

-$0.45

Record

62%

1364-828 (2192)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Spirit Academy Green

Invested

$7.56

Value

$12.36

PnL

+$4.8

Record

37%

538-932 (1470)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Spirit Academy Green

Invested

$11.1

Value

$10.58

PnL

-$0.53

Record

49%

1241-1273 (2514)

suntori<$100

SINQU

Invested

$9.52

Value

$9.1

PnL

-$0.42

Record

47%

1625-1826 (3451)

Research grade

NeutralSpirit Academy Green at 38%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Spirit Academy Green

10 of 11 top traders (91%)Underdog side (market favors SINQU 62%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Spirit Academy Green wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance40.2%

38.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$148.82

Max Loss

-$100.00

248.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.