Counter-Strike: SINQU vs KUUSAMO.gg (BO3) - Elisa Open Suomi Group Stage
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold SINQU (50%) · SINQU at 100¢ · $302 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
SINQU
6
SINQU 50%
$302.14
-$128.77
87.9¢ → 100¢
+14% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralSINQU at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 90%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on SINQU. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 alpheclabs2 | SINQUavg 88¢ | $181.28 | $170.98 | -$10.3 | 45% 116-143 (259) |
38 38791873984189CTR | KUUSAMO.ggavg 55.9¢ | $165.1 | $50.19 | -$114.91 | 48% 1363-1480 (2843) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | SINQUavg 89¢ | $46.5 | $50 | +$3.5 | 53% 5727-5123 (10850) |
LR lryyy<$100 | SINQUavg 85.6¢ | $25.15 | $27 | +$1.85 | 45% 233-283 (516) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | KUUSAMO.ggavg 56¢ | $11.2 | $3.4 | -$7.8 | 48% 668-712 (1380) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | KUUSAMO.ggavg 50¢ | $1.68 | $0.57 | -$1.11 | 51% 1843-1797 (3640) |
alpheclabs2Invested
$181.28
Value
$170.98
PnL
-$10.3
Record
45%
116-143 (259)
Invested
$165.1
Value
$50.19
PnL
-$114.91
Record
48%
1363-1480 (2843)
Invested
$46.5
Value
$50
PnL
+$3.5
Record
53%
5727-5123 (10850)
Invested
$25.15
Value
$27
PnL
+$1.85
Record
45%
233-283 (516)
Invested
$11.2
Value
$3.4
PnL
-$7.8
Record
48%
668-712 (1380)
Invested
$1.68
Value
$0.57
PnL
-$1.11
Record
51%
1843-1797 (3640)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.