Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Spirit HU, while the market favors ENRAGE (100%). 3 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Counter-Strike: Spirit HU vs ENRAGE (BO1) - ESEA Advanced Europe Regular Season

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Spirit HU (38%) · Spirit HU at 0.1¢ · $397 held · ends Nov 13

Spirit HU<1¢ENRAGE>99¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Spirit HU

Consensus Traders

Spirit HU 38%

Total Value

$397.07

Combined PnL

-$15.5

Smart Money Entry

32.4¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidSpirit HU at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Spirit HU

3 of 8 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors ENRAGE 100%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Spirit HU0%

ENRAGE100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Spirit HU3 traders

Total Value$178.58

Total Shares430

Combined PnL-$91.98

ENRAGE5 traders

Total Value$218.49

Total Shares252

Combined PnL+$76.48

Spirit HU — 38%ENRAGE — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-25 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Spirit HU. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrSpirit HU 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000ENRAGE 63% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO NotJumpCTR	Spirit HUavg 50¢	$262.5	$178.5	-$84	54% 475-399 (874)
GA Gaditima	ENRAGEavg 69¢	$174.01	$150.68	+$76.68	47% 169-191 (360)
PA Pan9X<$100	ENRAGEavg 68.8¢	$35.25	$34.34	-$0.91	49% 1083-1137 (2220)
FE ferdinand2<$100	ENRAGEavg 65.4¢	$18.18	$18.61	+$0.43	49% 1261-1293 (2554)
FL Flaznorp<$100	ENRAGEavg 65.3¢	$11.22	$11.51	+$0.29	51% 2573-2489 (5062)
38 38791873984189<$100	ENRAGEavg 67¢	$3.35	$3.35	+$0	48% 2255-2437 (4692)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Spirit HUavg 5.3¢	$7.39	$0.07	-$7.32	36% 548-955 (1503)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Spirit HUavg 2.5¢	$0.67	$0.01	-$0.66	44% 405-509 (914)

NotJumpCTR

Spirit HU

Invested

$262.5

Value

$178.5

PnL

-$84

Record

54%

475-399 (874)

Gaditima

ENRAGE

Invested

$174.01

Value

$150.68

PnL

+$76.68

Record

47%

169-191 (360)

Pan9X<$100

ENRAGE

Invested

$35.25

Value

$34.34

PnL

-$0.91

Record

49%

1083-1137 (2220)

ferdinand2<$100

ENRAGE

Invested

$18.18

Value

$18.61

PnL

+$0.43

Record

49%

1261-1293 (2554)

Flaznorp<$100

ENRAGE

Invested

$11.22

Value

$11.51

PnL

+$0.29

Record

51%

2573-2489 (5062)

38791873984189<$100

ENRAGE

Invested

$3.35

Value

$3.35

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

2255-2437 (4692)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Spirit HU

Invested

$7.39

Value

$0.07

PnL

-$7.32

Record

36%

548-955 (1503)

lryyyCTR<$100

Spirit HU

Invested

$0.67

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.66

Record

44%

405-509 (914)

Research grade

AvoidSpirit HU at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Spirit HU

3 of 8 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors ENRAGE 100%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-25 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Spirit HU. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrSpirit HU 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000ENRAGE 63% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Spirit HU wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.