Counter-Strike: ex-Sashi Academy vs Ducks (BO3) - Exort Fiesta Closed Qualifier: Series #4 Group D
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold ex-Sashi Academy (40%) · ex-Sashi Academy at 100¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
ex-Sashi Academy
5
ex-Sashi Academy 40%
$1.1K
-$447.64
99.6¢ → 99.6¢
+0% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
Neutralex-Sashi Academy at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on ex-Sashi Academy. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallme | ex-Sashi Academyavg 99.9¢ | $997.53 | $994.54 | -$3 | 41% 3126-4493 (7619) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Ducksavg 68.1¢ | $312.17 | $76.72 | -$235.45 | 48% 1352-1466 (2818) |
CI cigarettesCTR | Ducksavg 26.7¢ | $217.07 | $23.26 | -$193.81 | 53% 5689-5114 (10803) |
0X 0x04fbd55b0626ADd23661c448710a0194fcd25968-1789564287540<$100 | ex-Sashi Academyavg 84¢ | $17.16 | $20.31 | +$3.15 | 54% 81-69 (150) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Ducksavg 64.2¢ | $34.02 | $5.25 | -$18.53 | 48% 667-712 (1379) |
Invested
$997.53
Value
$994.54
PnL
-$3
Record
41%
3126-4493 (7619)
Invested
$312.17
Value
$76.72
PnL
-$235.45
Record
48%
1352-1466 (2818)
Invested
$217.07
Value
$23.26
PnL
-$193.81
Record
53%
5689-5114 (10803)
Invested
$17.16
Value
$20.31
PnL
+$3.15
Record
54%
81-69 (150)
Invested
$34.02
Value
$5.25
PnL
-$18.53
Record
48%
667-712 (1379)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.