Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold ex-RUSTEC, while the market favors Spirit Academy (51%). 8 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Counter-Strike: ex-RUSTEC vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Stage
8 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold ex-RUSTEC (100%) · ex-RUSTEC at 49¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 13
⚖️
Neutral
ex-RUSTEC
8
ex-RUSTEC 100%
$1.4K
$25.89
48.2¢ → 49¢
+2% since entry · 8 traders
Research grade
Neutralex-RUSTEC at 49%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 8 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Spirit Academy 51%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on ex-RUSTEC. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255FCTR | ex-RUSTECavg 49.3¢ | $990.55 | $984.97 | -$5.58 | 54% 143-120 (263) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR | ex-RUSTECavg 45.5¢ | $162.27 | $171.22 | +$8.95 | 37% 534-922 (1456) |
CI cigarettesCTR | ex-RUSTECavg 45¢ | $152.8 | $169.78 | +$16.98 | 53% 6091-5453 (11544) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | ex-RUSTECavg 45.8¢ | $58.32 | $19.16 | +$3.86 | 49% 1072-1133 (2205) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | ex-RUSTECavg 44¢ | $7.86 | $8.93 | +$1.07 | 47% 522-581 (1103) |
GA GaditimaCTR<$100 | ex-RUSTECavg 44¢ | $5.81 | $6.34 | +$0.53 | 47% 160-184 (344) |
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100 | ex-RUSTECavg 46¢ | $2.3 | $2.35 | +$0.05 | 49% 1228-1254 (2482) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | ex-RUSTECavg 46¢ | $1.77 | $1.81 | +$0.04 | 51% 2532-2437 (4969) |
Invested
$990.55
Value
$984.97
PnL
-$5.58
Record
54%
143-120 (263)
Invested
$162.27
Value
$171.22
PnL
+$8.95
Record
37%
534-922 (1456)
Invested
$152.8
Value
$169.78
PnL
+$16.98
Record
53%
6091-5453 (11544)
Invested
$58.32
Value
$19.16
PnL
+$3.86
Record
49%
1072-1133 (2205)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$7.86
Value
$8.93
PnL
+$1.07
Record
47%
522-581 (1103)
Invested
$5.81
Value
$6.34
PnL
+$0.53
Record
47%
160-184 (344)
Invested
$2.3
Value
$2.35
PnL
+$0.05
Record
49%
1228-1254 (2482)
Invested
$1.77
Value
$1.81
PnL
+$0.04
Record
51%
2532-2437 (4969)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
49.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255F
CTRex-RUSTEC — $984.97
topdogbigboi
CTRex-RUSTEC — $171.22
cigarettes
CTRex-RUSTEC — $169.78
Pan9X
CTRex-RUSTEC — $19.16
poshposh
CTRex-RUSTEC — $8.93
Gaditima
CTRex-RUSTEC — $6.34
ferdinand2
CTRex-RUSTEC — $2.35
Flaznorp
CTRex-RUSTEC — $1.81