Counter-Strike: ex-RUSTEC vs Nexus (BO3) - CCT Europe Group Stage

13 of 21 top Polymarket traders hold Nexus (62%) · Nexus at 56¢ · $81K held · ends Nov 14

ex-RUSTEC45¢Nexus55¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Nexus

Consensus Traders

Nexus 62%

Total Value

$81.4K

Combined PnL

-$164.23

Smart Money Entry

54¢ → 55.5¢

+3% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

Research candidateNexus at 56%

Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Nexus

13 of 21 top traders (62%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

ex-RUSTEC45%

Nexus56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

ex-RUSTEC8 traders

Total Value$37.0K

Total Shares83,011

Combined PnL-$978.2

Nexus13 traders

Total Value$44.4K

Total Shares80,626

Combined PnL+$813.97

ex-RUSTEC — 38%Nexus — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

62% of non-arb traders are on Nexus. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNexus 60% · 15

Aligned

Top 1000Nexus 62% · 21

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255FCTR	ex-RUSTECavg 45.7¢	$34.1K	$33.2K	-$888.6	56% 156-125 (281)
WI Wiretransferxyz	Nexusavg 54¢	$18.9K	$19.2K	+$350	56% 388-305 (693)
VI vibing123	Nexusavg 54¢	$10.8K	$11.0K	+$200	62% 1124-676 (1800)
BA Babooou	Nexusavg 54¢	$4.8K	$4.8K	+$88	60% 12-8 (20)
FeedTheBigBird	Nexusavg 54¢	$3.7K	$3.8K	+$102.94	62% 21-13 (34)
JA JAMJAMJAM4CTR	ex-RUSTECavg 46¢	$3.3K	$3.3K	-$72.6	2% 11-509 (520)
SE sentrio	Nexusavg 54¢	$1.5K	$1.6K	+$28.39	43% 808-1065 (1873)
0X 0xAbF543512f33E2D754ada028a689610139Cccfeb-1760974401494	Nexusavg 54¢	$810	$825	+$15	0% 1-386 (387)
MA manoamano	Nexusavg 55.9¢	$734.1	$722.53	-$11.57	54% 25-21 (46)
0X 0xf483653F527A9EE5730EAF28709C2856Ab5Fa89c-1765271749237	Nexusavg 55¢	$616.95	$622.56	+$5.61	53% 48-43 (91)
IW iWasEnough	Nexusavg 54¢	$527.34	$537.1	+$9.77	43% 17-23 (40)
38 38791873984189	Nexusavg 54.7¢	$485.52	$492.84	+$7.32	48% 2786-3040 (5826)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Nexusavg 54¢	$432	$440	+$8	22% 266-965 (1231)
fyrskenCTR	ex-RUSTECavg 47¢	$329	$315	-$14	52% 46-43 (89)
GA Gaditima	Nexusavg 53.5¢	$242.09	$251.17	+$9.07	47% 224-251 (475)
KA KaczkaCTR	ex-RUSTECavg 46¢	$170	$164.46	-$5.54	1% 2-176 (178)
BI biying99999<$100	Nexusavg 53¢	$38.16	$39.6	+$1.44	33% 88-181 (269)
OD OddstormCTR<$100	ex-RUSTECavg 39¢	$10.5	$12.11	+$1.62	30% 77-180 (257)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	ex-RUSTECavg 39.3¢	$7.07	$8.09	+$1.02	37% 657-1141 (1798)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	ex-RUSTECavg 45¢	$12.6	$3.56	-$0.04	49% 1306-1355 (2661)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	ex-RUSTECavg 46¢	$2.29	$2.24	-$0.05	44% 391-495 (886)

0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255FCTR

ex-RUSTEC

Invested

$34,095.91

Value

$33.2K

PnL

-$888.6

Record

56%

156-125 (281)

Wiretransferxyz

Nexus

Invested

$18,899.86

Value

$19.2K

PnL

+$350

Record

56%

388-305 (693)

vibing123

Nexus

Invested

$10,799.88

Value

$11.0K

PnL

+$200

Record

62%

1124-676 (1800)

Babooou

Nexus

Invested

$4,751.98

Value

$4.8K

PnL

+$88

Record

60%

12-8 (20)

FeedTheBigBird

Nexus

Invested

$3,705.95

Value

$3.8K

PnL

+$102.94

Record

62%

21-13 (34)

JAMJAMJAM4CTR

ex-RUSTEC

Invested

$3,339.6

Value

$3.3K

PnL

-$72.6

Record

11-509 (520)

sentrio

Nexus

Invested

$1,533.27

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$28.39

Record

43%

808-1065 (1873)

0xAbF543512f33E2D754ada028a689610139Cccfeb-1760974401494

Nexus

Invested

$810

Value

$825

PnL

+$15

Record

1-386 (387)

manoamano

Nexus

Invested

$734.1

Value

$722.53

PnL

-$11.57

Record

54%

25-21 (46)

0xf483653F527A9EE5730EAF28709C2856Ab5Fa89c-1765271749237

Nexus

Invested

$616.95

Value

$622.56

PnL

+$5.61

Record

53%

48-43 (91)

iWasEnough

Nexus

Invested

$527.34

Value

$537.1

PnL

+$9.77

Record

43%

17-23 (40)

38791873984189

Nexus

Invested

$485.52

Value

$492.84

PnL

+$7.32

Record

48%

2786-3040 (5826)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Nexus

Invested

$432

Value

$440

PnL

+$8

Record

22%

266-965 (1231)

fyrskenCTR

ex-RUSTEC

Invested

$329

Value

$315

PnL

-$14

Record

52%

46-43 (89)

Gaditima

Nexus

Invested

$242.09

Value

$251.17

PnL

+$9.07

Record

47%

224-251 (475)

KaczkaCTR

ex-RUSTEC

Invested

$170

Value

$164.46

PnL

-$5.54

Record

2-176 (178)

biying99999<$100

Nexus

Invested

$38.16

Value

$39.6

PnL

+$1.44

Record

33%

88-181 (269)

OddstormCTR<$100

ex-RUSTEC

Invested

$10.5

Value

$12.11

PnL

+$1.62

Record

30%

77-180 (257)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

ex-RUSTEC

Invested

$7.07

Value

$8.09

PnL

+$1.02

Record

37%

657-1141 (1798)

Pan9XCTR<$100

ex-RUSTEC

Invested

$12.6

Value

$3.56

PnL

-$0.04

Record

49%

1306-1355 (2661)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

ex-RUSTEC

Invested

$2.29

Value

$2.24

PnL

-$0.05

Record

44%

391-495 (886)

Research grade

Research candidateNexus at 56%

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Nexus

13 of 21 top traders (62%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

62% of non-arb traders are on Nexus. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNexus 60% · 15

Aligned

Top 1000Nexus 62% · 21

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Nexus wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance57.7%

55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$73.22

Max Loss

-$100.00

173.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.