Counter-Strike: RED Canids Academy vs Los Niños - Map 2 Winner

5 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Los Niños (42%) · Los Niños at 54¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 16

RED Canids Academy47¢Los Niños53¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Los Niños

Consensus Traders

Los Niños 42%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.6K

Combined PnL

-$18.46

Smart Money Entry

53.5¢ → 53.5¢

+0% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralLos Niños at 54%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Los Niños

5 of 12 top traders (42%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

RED Canids Academy47%

Los Niños54%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Los Niños5 traders

Total Value$3.1K

Total Shares5,559

Combined PnL+$275.48

RED Canids Academy7 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares2,703

Combined PnL-$293.94

Los Niños — 42%RED Canids Academy — 58%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN RN01	Los Niñosavg 51.9¢	$2.4K	$2.4K	+$96.93	— 4-4 (8)
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fARB<$100	Los Niñosavg 72.3¢	$701.94	$594.5	-$107.44	61% 217-137 (354)
└ Los Niños leg	Los Niñosavg 72.3¢	$393.46	$459.91	+$66.45
└ RED Canids Academy leg	RED Canids Academyavg 35.5¢	$308.48	$134.59	-$173.89
latvian.demon	Los Niñosavg 59.2¢	$429.15	$496.58	+$67.43	15% 81-474 (555)
SK skibidipaCTR	RED Canids Academyavg 46.8¢	$588.24	$395.69	-$192.54	— 3-3 (6)
31 319113331313111ARB<$100	Los Niñosavg 84.9¢	$6.2K	$374.98	-$385.25	55% 220-182 (402)
└ RED Canids Academy leg	RED Canids Academyavg 45¢	$202.5	$209.25	+$122.7
└ Los Niños leg	Los Niñosavg 84.9¢	$263.01	$165.73	-$507.95
NO NotJumpCTR	RED Canids Academyavg 50¢	$262.5	$262.5	+$0	50% 1210-1232 (2442)
TO topdogbigboiARB<$100	Los Niñosavg 42.2¢	$186.64	$246.42	+$59.78	39% 1675-2667 (4342)
└ Los Niños leg	Los Niñosavg 42.2¢	$105.82	$171.69	+$65.87
└ RED Canids Academy leg	RED Canids Academyavg 34.1¢	$80.82	$74.73	-$6.08
LR lryyyCTR	RED Canids Academyavg 50.7¢	$261.52	$240.97	-$20.54	45% 1025-1238 (2263)
Future-Tarot-TraderCTR	RED Canids Academyavg 27.1¢	$396.62	$132.46	-$23.18	55% 173-141 (314)
0X 0x2A97E8680FbED0fFCB4661cAc73B066dd3e12FFB-1771833636314CTR	RED Canids Academyavg 46.8¢	$152.09	$130.09	-$22	23% 41-141 (182)
JA JabJabich	Los Niñosavg 56.8¢	$454.69	$99.15	+$110.67	42% 67-92 (159)
poshposh<$100	Los Niñosavg 87.9¢	$86.42	$87.9	+$1.48	48% 1402-1506 (2908)
38 38791873984189<$100	Los Niñosavg 48.8¢	$96.93	$80.64	-$1.03	48% 4069-4469 (8538)
alpheclabs2CTR<$100	RED Canids Academyavg 48¢	$63.84	$61.85	-$2	45% 383-475 (858)
SH shiifooCTR<$100	RED Canids Academyavg 57¢	$52.32	$15.83	-$33.67	60% 1475-980 (2455)

RN01

Los Niños

Invested

$2,407.19

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$96.93

Record

—

4-4 (8)

0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fARB<$100

Los Niños

Invested

$701.94

Value

$594.5

PnL

-$107.44

Record

61%

217-137 (354)

Both legs:

Los Niños$393.4672.3¢+$66.45

RED Canids Academy$308.4835.5¢-$173.89

latvian.demon

Los Niños

Invested

$429.15

Value

$496.58

PnL

+$67.43

Record

15%

81-474 (555)

skibidipaCTR

RED Canids Academy

Invested

$588.24

Value

$395.69

PnL

-$192.54

Record

—

3-3 (6)

319113331313111ARB<$100

Los Niños

Invested

$6,227.56

Value

$374.98

PnL

-$385.25

Record

55%

220-182 (402)

Both legs:

RED Canids Academy$202.545¢+$122.7

Los Niños$263.0184.9¢-$507.95

NotJumpCTR

RED Canids Academy

Invested

$262.5

Value

$262.5

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

1210-1232 (2442)

topdogbigboiARB<$100

Los Niños

Invested

$186.64

Value

$246.42

PnL

+$59.78

Record

39%

1675-2667 (4342)

Both legs:

Los Niños$105.8242.2¢+$65.87

RED Canids Academy$80.8234.1¢-$6.08

lryyyCTR

RED Canids Academy

Invested

$261.52

Value

$240.97

PnL

-$20.54

Record

45%

1025-1238 (2263)

Future-Tarot-TraderCTR

RED Canids Academy

Invested

$396.62

Value

$132.46

PnL

-$23.18

Record

55%

173-141 (314)

0x2A97E8680FbED0fFCB4661cAc73B066dd3e12FFB-1771833636314CTR

RED Canids Academy

Invested

$152.09

Value

$130.09

PnL

-$22

Record

23%

41-141 (182)

JabJabich

Los Niños

Invested

$454.69

Value

$99.15

PnL

+$110.67

Record

42%

67-92 (159)

poshposh<$100

Los Niños

Invested

$86.42

Value

$87.9

PnL

+$1.48

Record

48%

1402-1506 (2908)

38791873984189<$100

Los Niños

Invested

$96.93

Value

$80.64

PnL

-$1.03

Record

48%

4069-4469 (8538)

alpheclabs2CTR<$100

RED Canids Academy

Invested

$63.84

Value

$61.85

PnL

-$2

Record

45%

383-475 (858)

shiifooCTR<$100

RED Canids Academy

Invested

$52.32

Value

$15.83

PnL

-$33.67

Record

60%

1475-980 (2455)

Research grade

NeutralLos Niños at 54%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Los Niños

5 of 12 top traders (42%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Los Niños wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.7%

53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$79.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

179.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.