Counter-Strike: RED Canids Academy vs Los Niños - Map 1 Winner
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Los Niños (63%) · Los Niños at 100¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 16
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Neutral
Los Niños
8
Los Niños 63%
1 arb excluded
$2.5K
$285.76
71.5¢ → 99.5¢
+39% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralLos Niños at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
JA JabJabich | Los Niñosavg 63.7¢ | $880.7 | $1.3K | +$445.95 | 40% 62-92 (154) |
31 319113331313111 | Los Niñosavg 87.9¢ | $1.3K | $507.88 | -$133.62 | 54% 216-181 (397) |
NO NotJumpCTR | RED Canids Academyavg 50¢ | $262.5 | $262.5 | +$0 | 49% 1197-1222 (2419) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR | RED Canids Academyavg 30.3¢ | $127.67 | $162.16 | +$34.49 | 39% 1657-2634 (4291) |
 poshposhARB<$100 | Los Niñosavg 89.5¢ | $104.39 | $72.9 | -$31.49 | 48% 1389-1483 (2872) |
| └ Los Niños leg | Los Niñosavg 89.5¢ | $52.34 | $50.6 | -$1.74 | |
| └ RED Canids Academy leg | RED Canids Academyavg 31.5¢ | $52.06 | $22.3 | -$29.76 | |
 Future-Tarot-Trader<$100 | Los Niñosavg 85.9¢ | $91.75 | $42.97 | +$7 | 55% 172-140 (312) |
LR lryyy<$100 | Los Niñosavg 89¢ | $53.75 | $35.96 | -$17.79 | 45% 1018-1224 (2242) |
 0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fCTR | RED Canids Academyavg 34.5¢ | $881.22 | $27.81 | -$53.92 | 61% 215-135 (350) |
PA pauleta23<$100 | Los Niñosavg 70.4¢ | $10 | $13.64 | +$3.64 | 43% 580-772 (1352) |
Invested
$880.7
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$445.95
Record
40%
62-92 (154)
Invested
$1,345.96
Value
$507.88
PnL
-$133.62
Record
54%
216-181 (397)
Invested
$262.5
Value
$262.5
PnL
+$0
Record
49%
1197-1222 (2419)
Invested
$127.67
Value
$162.16
PnL
+$34.49
Record
39%
1657-2634 (4291)
poshposhARB<$100Invested
$104.39
Value
$72.9
PnL
-$31.49
Record
48%
1389-1483 (2872)
Both legs:
Future-Tarot-Trader<$100Invested
$91.75
Value
$42.97
PnL
+$7
Record
55%
172-140 (312)
Invested
$53.75
Value
$35.96
PnL
-$17.79
Record
45%
1018-1224 (2242)
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fCTRInvested
$881.22
Value
$27.81
PnL
-$53.92
Record
61%
215-135 (350)
Invested
$10
Value
$13.64
PnL
+$3.64
Record
43%
580-772 (1352)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
JabJabich
Los Niños — $1.3K
319113331313111
Los Niños — $507.88
NotJump
CTRRED Canids Academy — $262.5
topdogbigboi
CTRRED Canids Academy — $162.16
poshposh
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Future-Tarot-Trader
Los Niños — $42.97
lryyy
Los Niños — $35.96
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f
CTRRED Canids Academy — $27.81
pauleta23
Los Niños — $13.64