Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold BESTIA Academy, while the market favors RED Canids Academy (80%). 4 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Counter-Strike: RED Canids Academy vs BESTIA Academy (BO3) - CCT South America Group Stage

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold BESTIA Academy (44%) · BESTIA Academy at 21¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 8

RED Canids Academy80¢BESTIA Academy20¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

BESTIA Academy

Consensus Traders

BESTIA Academy 44%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.3K

Combined PnL

-$266.76

Smart Money Entry

29.9¢ → 20.5¢

-31% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidBESTIA Academy at 21%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

BESTIA Academy

4 of 9 top traders (44%)Underdog side (market favors RED Canids Academy 80%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

RED Canids Academy80%

BESTIA Academy21%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

RED Canids Academy5 traders

Total Value$369.09

Total Shares507

Combined PnL+$26.11

BESTIA Academy4 traders

Total Value$329.17

Total Shares2,082

Combined PnL-$292.87

RED Canids Academy — 56%BESTIA Academy — 44%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
31 319113331313111ARB<$100	RED Canids Academyavg 80.2¢	$619.74	$721	+$101.26	59% 467-318 (785)
└ BESTIA Academy leg	BESTIA Academyavg 17.8¢	$182.12	$374.42	+$192.3
└ RED Canids Academy leg	RED Canids Academyavg 80.2¢	$437.62	$346.58	-$91.04
BI BillBenter2026ARB<$100	BESTIA Academyavg 30.4¢	$525.73	$481.32	-$44.4	57% 20227-15044 (35271)
└ BESTIA Academy leg	BESTIA Academyavg 30.4¢	$344.26	$266.09	-$78.16
└ RED Canids Academy leg	RED Canids Academyavg 64.5¢	$181.47	$215.23	+$33.76
GA Gaditima	RED Canids Academyavg 66.2¢	$302.94	$324.98	+$22.05	47% 8606-9734 (18340)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846ARB<$100	RED Canids Academyavg 84.5¢	$285.61	$318.57	+$32.96	56% 39445-31086 (70531)
└ RED Canids Academy leg	RED Canids Academyavg 84.5¢	$232.38	$174.63	-$57.75
└ BESTIA Academy leg	BESTIA Academyavg 13.5¢	$53.24	$143.95	+$90.71
0X 0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255FCTR	BESTIA Academyavg 32.1¢	$569.95	$257.35	-$312.6	55% 258-215 (473)
alpheclabs2ARB<$100	RED Canids Academyavg 89¢	$102.05	$96.03	-$6.01	47% 1601-1796 (3397)
└ RED Canids Academy leg	RED Canids Academyavg 89¢	$97.01	$70.85	-$26.16
└ BESTIA Academy leg	BESTIA Academyavg 7¢	$5.04	$25.18	+$20.15
FE ferrariChampions2026CTR<$100	BESTIA Academyavg 16.4¢	$47.88	$68.59	+$20.71	46% 33216-38836 (72052)
PA Pan9X<$100	RED Canids Academyavg 69.1¢	$51.99	$25.49	+$4.76	52% 27099-24604 (51703)
FL Flaznorp<$100	RED Canids Academyavg 68.5¢	$6.05	$6.75	+$0.7	51% 46870-44196 (91066)
PA pauleta23<$100	RED Canids Academyavg 74¢	$6.63	$5.94	-$0.69	65% 25410-13589 (38999)
Future-Tarot-Trader<$100	RED Canids Academyavg 75¢	$6.63	$5.92	-$0.71	64% 1329-748 (2077)
LO lonmi2511CTR<$100	BESTIA Academyavg 28.5¢	$2.85	$2.35	-$0.5	52% 1527-1394 (2921)
GT gt7238CTR<$100	BESTIA Academyavg 24¢	$1.37	$0.88	-$0.48	45% 691-861 (1552)

319113331313111ARB<$100

RED Canids Academy

Invested

$619.74

Value

$721

PnL

+$101.26

Record

59%

467-318 (785)

Both legs:

BESTIA Academy$182.1217.8¢+$192.3

RED Canids Academy$437.6280.2¢-$91.04

BillBenter2026ARB<$100

BESTIA Academy

Invested

$525.73

Value

$481.32

PnL

-$44.4

Record

57%

20227-15044 (35271)

Both legs:

BESTIA Academy$344.2630.4¢-$78.16

RED Canids Academy$181.4764.5¢+$33.76

Gaditima

RED Canids Academy

Invested

$302.94

Value

$324.98

PnL

+$22.05

Record

47%

8606-9734 (18340)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846ARB<$100

RED Canids Academy

Invested

$285.61

Value

$318.57

PnL

+$32.96

Record

56%

39445-31086 (70531)

Both legs:

RED Canids Academy$232.3884.5¢-$57.75

BESTIA Academy$53.2413.5¢+$90.71

0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255FCTR

BESTIA Academy

Invested

$569.95

Value

$257.35

PnL

-$312.6

Record

55%

258-215 (473)

alpheclabs2ARB<$100

RED Canids Academy

Invested

$102.05

Value

$96.03

PnL

-$6.01

Record

47%

1601-1796 (3397)

Both legs:

RED Canids Academy$97.0189¢-$26.16

BESTIA Academy$5.047¢+$20.15

ferrariChampions2026CTR<$100

BESTIA Academy

Invested

$47.88

Value

$68.59

PnL

+$20.71

Record

46%

33216-38836 (72052)

Pan9X<$100

RED Canids Academy

Invested

$51.99

Value

$25.49

PnL

+$4.76

Record

52%

27099-24604 (51703)

Flaznorp<$100

RED Canids Academy

Invested

$6.05

Value

$6.75

PnL

+$0.7

Record

51%

46870-44196 (91066)

pauleta23<$100

RED Canids Academy

Invested

$6.63

Value

$5.94

PnL

-$0.69

Record

65%

25410-13589 (38999)

Future-Tarot-Trader<$100

RED Canids Academy

Invested

$6.63

Value

$5.92

PnL

-$0.71

Record

64%

1329-748 (2077)

lonmi2511CTR<$100

BESTIA Academy

Invested

$2.85

Value

$2.35

PnL

-$0.5

Record

52%

1527-1394 (2921)

gt7238CTR<$100

BESTIA Academy

Invested

$1.37

Value

$0.88

PnL

-$0.48

Record

45%

691-861 (1552)

Research grade

AvoidBESTIA Academy at 21%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

BESTIA Academy

4 of 9 top traders (44%)Underdog side (market favors RED Canids Academy 80%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that BESTIA Academy wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance22.3%

20.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$347.55

Max Loss

-$100.00

447.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.