Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Team cutierover, while the market favors Team Recrent (75%). 4 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Counter-Strike: Team Recrent vs Team cutierover (BO3) - Winline Star Series Group B

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Team cutierover (57%) · Team cutierover at 26¢ · $9K held · ends Nov 14

Team Recrent75¢Team cutierover25¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Team cutierover

Consensus Traders

Team cutierover 57%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.5K

Combined PnL

$1.0K

Smart Money Entry

49.4¢ → 25.5¢

-48% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidTeam cutierover at 26%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Team cutierover

4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Team Recrent 75%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Team Recrent75%

Team cutierover26%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Team cutierover4 traders

Total Value$4.1K

Total Shares7,992

Combined PnL+$181.62

Team Recrent3 traders

Total Value$3.9K

Total Shares5,692

Combined PnL+$841.32

Team cutierover — 57%Team Recrent — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+63 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Team cutierover. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrTeam cutierover 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Team cutierover 83% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
iceblue-CTR	Team cutieroveravg 49.5¢	$3.8K	$3.9K	+$186.96	45% 30-37 (67)
JA JabJabich	Team Recrentavg 54.3¢	$2.3K	$3.2K	+$858	29% 26-63 (89)
lma0o0o0o	Team Recrentavg 53.4¢	$752.43	$739.81	-$12.61	53% 41-36 (77)
poshposhARB<$100	Team Recrentavg 54.4¢	$768.87	$686.27	-$82.6	48% 1079-1157 (2236)
└ Team Recrent leg	Team Recrentavg 54.4¢	$633.14	$517.48	-$115.66
└ Team cutierover leg	Team cutieroveravg 44.6¢	$135.74	$168.8	+$33.06
GA GaditimaARB<$100	Team cutieroveravg 45.8¢	$389.94	$411.64	+$21.71	48% 269-286 (555)
└ Team cutierover leg	Team cutieroveravg 45.8¢	$229	$232.5	+$3.5
└ Team Recrent leg	Team Recrentavg 48.1¢	$160.94	$179.14	+$18.21
CI cigarettesCTR	Team cutieroveravg 46¢	$184	$176	-$8	53% 7024-6169 (13193)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Team cutieroveravg 47¢	$1.5K	$170.53	-$60.58	48% 3192-3494 (6686)
└ Team cutierover leg	Team cutieroveravg 47¢	$90.34	$93.22	-$8.27
└ Team Recrent leg	Team Recrentavg 58.2¢	$87.3	$77.3	-$52.32
TO topdogbigboiARB<$100	Team cutieroveravg 39.5¢	$187.26	$153.93	-$33.33	37% 996-1673 (2669)
└ Team cutierover leg	Team cutieroveravg 39.5¢	$160.7	$109.73	-$50.96
└ Team Recrent leg	Team Recrentavg 43.9¢	$26.57	$44.2	+$17.63
PA Pan9X<$100	Team Recrentavg 55.2¢	$73.41	$19.02	-$4.07	50% 1579-1603 (3182)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100	Team cutieroveravg 53¢	$25.39	$12.01	+$2.96	43% 354-460 (814)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Team cutieroveravg 43¢	$2.15	$1.85	-$0.3	45% 788-969 (1757)

iceblue-CTR

Team cutierover

Invested

$3,750.69

Value

$3.9K

PnL

+$186.96

Record

45%

30-37 (67)

JabJabich

Team Recrent

Invested

$2,309.06

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$858

Record

29%

26-63 (89)

lma0o0o0o

Team Recrent

Invested

$752.43

Value

$739.81

PnL

-$12.61

Record

53%

41-36 (77)

poshposhARB<$100

Team Recrent

Invested

$768.87

Value

$686.27

PnL

-$82.6

Record

48%

1079-1157 (2236)

Both legs:

Team Recrent$633.1454.4¢-$115.66

Team cutierover$135.7444.6¢+$33.06

GaditimaARB<$100

Team cutierover

Invested

$389.94

Value

$411.64

PnL

+$21.71

Record

48%

269-286 (555)

Both legs:

Team cutierover$22945.8¢+$3.5

Team Recrent$160.9448.1¢+$18.21

cigarettesCTR

Team cutierover

Invested

$184

Value

$176

PnL

-$8

Record

53%

7024-6169 (13193)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Team cutierover

Invested

$1,482.43

Value

$170.53

PnL

-$60.58

Record

48%

3192-3494 (6686)

Both legs:

Team cutierover$90.3447¢-$8.27

Team Recrent$87.358.2¢-$52.32

topdogbigboiARB<$100

Team cutierover

Invested

$187.26

Value

$153.93

PnL

-$33.33

Record

37%

996-1673 (2669)

Both legs:

Team cutierover$160.739.5¢-$50.96

Team Recrent$26.5743.9¢+$17.63

Pan9X<$100

Team Recrent

Invested

$73.41

Value

$19.02

PnL

-$4.07

Record

50%

1579-1603 (3182)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100

Team cutierover

Invested

$25.39

Value

$12.01

PnL

+$2.96

Record

43%

354-460 (814)

lryyyCTR<$100

Team cutierover

Invested

$2.15

Value

$1.85

PnL

-$0.3

Record

45%

788-969 (1757)

Research grade

AvoidTeam cutierover at 26%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Team cutierover

4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Team Recrent 75%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+63 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Team cutierover. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrTeam cutierover 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Team cutierover 83% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Team cutierover wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance27.5%

25.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$263.98

Max Loss

-$100.00

364.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.