Counter-Strike: QUINTESSÊNCIA vs ex-Yawara (BO3) - CCT South America Playoffs

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold ex-Yawara (40%) · ex-Yawara at 65¢ · $27K held · ends Nov 15

QUINTESSÊNCIA35¢ex-Yawara65¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

ex-Yawara

Consensus Traders

ex-Yawara 40%

Total Value

$27.0K

Combined PnL

$67.51

Smart Money Entry

64.8¢ → 65¢

+0% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

Neutralex-Yawara at 65%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

ex-Yawara

4 of 10 top traders (40%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

QUINTESSÊNCIA35%

ex-Yawara65%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

ex-Yawara4 traders

Total Value$19.5K

Total Shares30,003

Combined PnL+$46.77

QUINTESSÊNCIA6 traders

Total Value$7.5K

Total Shares21,979

Combined PnL+$20.74

ex-Yawara — 40%QUINTESSÊNCIA — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on ex-Yawara. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrex-Yawara 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000QUINTESSÊNCIA 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255F	ex-Yawaraavg 65.4¢	$17.7K	$17.6K	-$99.74	55% 164-133 (297)
WI WiretransferxyzCTR	QUINTESSÊNCIAavg 33¢	$6.0K	$6.0K	+$90.19	56% 390-306 (696)
JU JuiceFarm	ex-Yawaraavg 56¢	$783.48	$909.99	+$126.51	59% 43-30 (73)
CI cigarettesCTR	QUINTESSÊNCIAavg 39.1¢	$749.83	$708.68	-$41.15	53% 7046-6183 (13229)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	ex-Yawaraavg 66¢	$527.96	$531.96	+$4	25% 340-1017 (1357)
fyrsken	ex-Yawaraavg 61¢	$487.99	$503.99	+$16	52% 55-51 (106)
poshposhCTR	QUINTESSÊNCIAavg 38.9¢	$436.96	$415.46	-$21.5	48% 1095-1172 (2267)
MA manoamanoCTR	QUINTESSÊNCIAavg 34¢	$145.26	$149.53	+$4.27	55% 29-24 (53)
GA GaditimaCTR	QUINTESSÊNCIAavg 40.3¢	$136.58	$125.51	-$11.07	48% 270-288 (558)
0X 0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69CTR<$100	QUINTESSÊNCIAavg 37¢	$50.35	$50.35	+$0	50% 153-152 (305)

0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255F

ex-Yawara

Invested

$17,652.01

Value

$17.6K

PnL

-$99.74

Record

55%

164-133 (297)

WiretransferxyzCTR

QUINTESSÊNCIA

Invested

$5,952.65

Value

$6.0K

PnL

+$90.19

Record

56%

390-306 (696)

JuiceFarm

ex-Yawara

Invested

$783.48

Value

$909.99

PnL

+$126.51

Record

59%

43-30 (73)

cigarettesCTR

QUINTESSÊNCIA

Invested

$749.83

Value

$708.68

PnL

-$41.15

Record

53%

7046-6183 (13229)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

ex-Yawara

Invested

$527.96

Value

$531.96

PnL

+$4

Record

25%

340-1017 (1357)

fyrsken

ex-Yawara

Invested

$487.99

Value

$503.99

PnL

+$16

Record

52%

55-51 (106)

poshposhCTR

QUINTESSÊNCIA

Invested

$436.96

Value

$415.46

PnL

-$21.5

Record

48%

1095-1172 (2267)

manoamanoCTR

QUINTESSÊNCIA

Invested

$145.26

Value

$149.53

PnL

+$4.27

Record

55%

29-24 (53)

GaditimaCTR

QUINTESSÊNCIA

Invested

$136.58

Value

$125.51

PnL

-$11.07

Record

48%

270-288 (558)

0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69CTR<$100

QUINTESSÊNCIA

Invested

$50.35

Value

$50.35

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

153-152 (305)

Research grade

Neutralex-Yawara at 65%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

ex-Yawara

4 of 10 top traders (40%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on ex-Yawara. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrex-Yawara 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000QUINTESSÊNCIA 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that ex-Yawara wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance67.1%

65.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$48.98

Max Loss

-$100.00

149.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.