Counter-Strike: QUINTESSÊNCIA vs underw0rld (BO3) - CCT South America Group Stage

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold QUINTESSÊNCIA (57%) · QUINTESSÊNCIA at 88¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 11

QUINTESSÊNCIA88¢underw0rld12¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

QUINTESSÊNCIA

Consensus Traders

QUINTESSÊNCIA 57%

Total Value

$3.2K

Combined PnL

$161.54

Smart Money Entry

74.9¢ → 87.5¢

+17% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralQUINTESSÊNCIA at 88%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

QUINTESSÊNCIA

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

QUINTESSÊNCIA88%

underw0rld13%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

QUINTESSÊNCIA4 traders

Total Value$3.1K

Total Shares3,711

Combined PnL+$274.04

underw0rld3 traders

Total Value$128.36

Total Shares853

Combined PnL-$112.5

QUINTESSÊNCIA — 57%underw0rld — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on QUINTESSÊNCIA. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrunderw0rld 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000QUINTESSÊNCIA 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255F	QUINTESSÊNCIAavg 74.1¢	$2.4K	$2.7K	+$259.93	54% 134-113 (247)
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f	QUINTESSÊNCIAavg 79¢	$255.49	$271.69	+$16.19	67% 61-30 (91)
31 319113331313111	QUINTESSÊNCIAavg 87¢	$114.23	$112.14	-$2.09	54% 71-61 (132)
alpheclabs2CTR	underw0rldavg 28¢	$136.92	$73.35	-$63.57	45% 116-143 (259)
CI cigarettesCTR	underw0rldavg 29¢	$101.5	$52.5	-$49	53% 5689-5114 (10803)
FL Flaznorp<$100	QUINTESSÊNCIAavg 77.9¢	$7.65	$7.65	+$0	51% 1842-1797 (3639)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	underw0rldavg 17¢	$2.44	$2.51	+$0.07	53% 1811-1620 (3431)

0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255F

QUINTESSÊNCIA

Invested

$2,440.25

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$259.93

Record

54%

134-113 (247)

0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f

QUINTESSÊNCIA

Invested

$255.49

Value

$271.69

PnL

+$16.19

Record

67%

61-30 (91)

319113331313111

QUINTESSÊNCIA

Invested

$114.23

Value

$112.14

PnL

-$2.09

Record

54%

71-61 (132)

alpheclabs2CTR

underw0rld

Invested

$136.92

Value

$73.35

PnL

-$63.57

Record

45%

116-143 (259)

cigarettesCTR

underw0rld

Invested

$101.5

Value

$52.5

PnL

-$49

Record

53%

5689-5114 (10803)

Flaznorp<$100

QUINTESSÊNCIA

Invested

$7.65

Value

$7.65

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

1842-1797 (3639)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

underw0rld

Invested

$2.44

Value

$2.51

PnL

+$0.07

Record

53%

1811-1620 (3431)

Research grade

NeutralQUINTESSÊNCIA at 88%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

QUINTESSÊNCIA

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on QUINTESSÊNCIA. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrunderw0rld 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000QUINTESSÊNCIA 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that QUINTESSÊNCIA wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance89.0%

87.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$12.35

Max Loss

-$100.00

112.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.