Counter-Strike: QUINTESSÊNCIA vs Rush (BO3) - CCT South America Group Stage

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Rush (38%) · Rush at 68¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 11

QUINTESSÊNCIA33¢Rush67¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Rush

Consensus Traders

Rush 38%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.6K

Combined PnL

$79.98

Smart Money Entry

52.1¢ → 67.5¢

+30% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralRush at 68%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Rush

3 of 8 top traders (38%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

QUINTESSÊNCIA33%

Rush68%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Rush3 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares2,367

Combined PnL+$109.19

QUINTESSÊNCIA5 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares2,383

Combined PnL-$29.2

Rush — 38%QUINTESSÊNCIA — 62%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255F	Rushavg 52.5¢	$976.73	$1.0K	+$28.32	53% 123-109 (232)
PU purplegattoCTR	QUINTESSÊNCIAavg 48.8¢	$885.22	$842.64	-$42.58	69% 2573-1165 (3738)
31 319113331313111	Rushavg 50.5¢	$260.94	$341.73	+$80.79	42% 41-56 (97)
GA GaditimaCTR	QUINTESSÊNCIAavg 49¢	$192.37	$201.22	+$8.85	48% 77-83 (160)
alpheclabs2ARB<$100	QUINTESSÊNCIAavg 47.6¢	$74.43	$80.58	+$6.14	45% 79-95 (174)
└ QUINTESSÊNCIA leg	QUINTESSÊNCIAavg 47.6¢	$46.98	$44.42	-$2.56
└ Rush leg	Rushavg 41¢	$27.45	$36.16	+$8.7
LO lonmi2511CTR<$100	QUINTESSÊNCIAavg 33¢	$56.07	$59.99	+$3.92	60% 631-413 (1044)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	QUINTESSÊNCIAavg 45¢	$22.49	$22.99	+$0.5	53% 5440-4884 (10324)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	QUINTESSÊNCIAavg 48¢	$10.56	$10.67	+$0.11	50% 171-170 (341)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Rushavg 62¢	$2.06	$2.14	+$0.08	50% 1423-1425 (2848)

0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255F

Rush

Invested

$976.73

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$28.32

Record

53%

123-109 (232)

purplegattoCTR

QUINTESSÊNCIA

Invested

$885.22

Value

$842.64

PnL

-$42.58

Record

69%

2573-1165 (3738)

319113331313111

Rush

Invested

$260.94

Value

$341.73

PnL

+$80.79

Record

42%

41-56 (97)

GaditimaCTR

QUINTESSÊNCIA

Invested

$192.37

Value

$201.22

PnL

+$8.85

Record

48%

77-83 (160)

alpheclabs2ARB<$100

QUINTESSÊNCIA

Invested

$74.43

Value

$80.58

PnL

+$6.14

Record

45%

79-95 (174)

Both legs:

QUINTESSÊNCIA$46.9847.6¢-$2.56

Rush$27.4541¢+$8.7

lonmi2511CTR<$100

QUINTESSÊNCIA

Invested

$56.07

Value

$59.99

PnL

+$3.92

Record

60%

631-413 (1044)

cigarettesCTR<$100

QUINTESSÊNCIA

Invested

$22.49

Value

$22.99

PnL

+$0.5

Record

53%

5440-4884 (10324)

lryyyCTR<$100

QUINTESSÊNCIA

Invested

$10.56

Value

$10.67

PnL

+$0.11

Record

50%

171-170 (341)

Flaznorp<$100

Rush

Invested

$2.06

Value

$2.14

PnL

+$0.08

Record

50%

1423-1425 (2848)

Research grade

NeutralRush at 68%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Rush

3 of 8 top traders (38%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Rush wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance69.6%

67.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$43.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

143.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.