Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs G2 - Map 1 Winner

11 of 21 top Polymarket traders hold G2 (52%) · G2 at 89¢ · $41K held · ends Nov 2

PARIVISION12¢G288¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

G2 52%

6 arb excluded

Total Value

$40.9K

Combined PnL

$2.2K

Smart Money Entry

67.2¢ → 88.5¢

+32% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralG2 at 89%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 21 top traders (52%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

PARIVISION12%

G289%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

G211 traders

Total Value$15.7K

Total Shares19,446

Combined PnL+$2.3K

PARIVISION10 traders

Total Value$4.3K

Total Shares13,547

Combined PnL-$113.43

G2 — 52%PARIVISION — 48%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fARB<$100	G2avg 73.2¢	$15.0K	$15.1K	+$146.51	54% 2488-2130 (4618)
└ G2 leg	G2avg 73.2¢	$11.3K	$11.8K	+$427.74
└ PARIVISION leg	PARIVISIONavg 26¢	$3.6K	$3.3K	-$281.23
0xheavy888	G2avg 62.9¢	$4.8K	$6.2K	+$1.4K	55% 7427-5969 (13396)
46 467j6yj	G2avg 84.6¢	$2.7K	$2.7K	+$30.04	97% 3412-119 (3531)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	G2avg 67.9¢	$2.3K	$2.5K	+$185.98	45% 6299-7631 (13930)
└ G2 leg	G2avg 67.9¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	-$10.53
└ PARIVISION leg	PARIVISIONavg 24.2¢	$571.28	$767.8	+$196.52
OM omnibus-076daa	G2avg 52.3¢	$1.7K	$2.3K	+$790.29	50% 19669-20037 (39706)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	PARIVISIONavg 28.3¢	$1.4K	$1.7K	+$392.9	51% 1585-1527 (3112)
0X 0xbb299ce4867ea634a83a254e24d1ffc5c148947aARB<$100	PARIVISIONavg 46.7¢	$2.2K	$1.7K	-$565.1	50% 207-210 (417)
└ PARIVISION leg	PARIVISIONavg 46.7¢	$1.9K	$1.3K	-$605.1
└ G2 leg	G2avg 60¢	$300	$340	+$40
JustADonk	G2avg 77.9¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$5.55	55% 903-749 (1652)
BI BillBenter2026	G2avg 64.1¢	$999.4	$1.0K	+$21.53	57% 18833-13941 (32774)
CA calculate10	G2avg 69.8¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	-$2.53	53% 1234-1082 (2316)
HU hurrican	G2avg 75¢	$1,000	$926.67	-$73.33	71% 1021-416 (1437)
YI yishiwuchengARB<$100	PARIVISIONavg 30.7¢	$961.7	$761.29	-$200.41	51% 1840-1767 (3607)
└ PARIVISION leg	PARIVISIONavg 30.7¢	$685.35	$390.87	-$294.49
└ G2 leg	G2avg 61.5¢	$276.35	$370.42	+$94.07
FI FinHealARB<$100	G2avg 80.5¢	$766.92	$714.39	-$52.53	59% 1328-921 (2249)
└ G2 leg	G2avg 80.5¢	$582.05	$549.17	-$32.88
└ PARIVISION leg	PARIVISIONavg 26.9¢	$184.87	$165.22	-$19.65
TO topdogbigboiCTR	PARIVISIONavg 25.6¢	$333.34	$500.56	+$167.22	48% 9587-10544 (20131)
latvian.demonCTR	PARIVISIONavg 41¢	$615	$480	-$135	54% 719-609 (1328)
FA facaigegeCTR	PARIVISIONavg 31¢	$360.64	$378.09	+$17.45	48% 411-438 (849)
poshposhCTR	PARIVISIONavg 15.6¢	$204.07	$364.75	+$160.68	58% 11000-8017 (19017)
TE testBruno2CTR	PARIVISIONavg 32.6¢	$8.2K	$326.79	-$447.8	58% 906-655 (1561)
12monkeysCTR	PARIVISIONavg 16¢	$234.4	$271.03	+$36.62	36% 319-559 (878)
forsenxdCTR	PARIVISIONavg 46¢	$551.37	$245.72	-$305.65	53% 1077-939 (2016)
0X 0x4f2	G2avg 67.2¢	$120.84	$135.83	+$14.98	52% 9198-8585 (17783)
IW iWasEnough	G2avg 52.4¢	$96.02	$124.6	+$28.58	54% 6256-5419 (11675)
Up0nly	G2avg 62.4¢	$389.57	$91.51	+$128.47	68% 983-472 (1455)
SU suntoriARB<$100	PARIVISIONavg 26¢	$60.75	$53.67	-$7.07	45% 5638-6771 (12409)
└ G2 leg	G2avg 70.9¢	$26.08	$30.34	+$4.26
└ PARIVISION leg	PARIVISIONavg 26¢	$34.67	$23.33	-$11.33
LR lryyy<$100	G2avg 75¢	$49.17	$53.18	+$4.01	45% 2252-2781 (5033)

0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fARB<$100

Invested

$14,953.02

Value

$15.1K

PnL

+$146.51

Record

54%

2488-2130 (4618)

Both legs:

G2$11,340.6573.2¢+$427.74

PARIVISION$3,612.3726¢-$281.23

0xheavy888

Invested

$4,797.67

Value

$6.2K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

55%

7427-5969 (13396)

467j6yj

Invested

$2,705.09

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$30.04

Record

97%

3412-119 (3531)

NotJumpARB<$100

Invested

$2,345.22

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$185.98

Record

45%

6299-7631 (13930)

Both legs:

G2$1,773.9467.9¢-$10.53

PARIVISION$571.2824.2¢+$196.52

omnibus-076daa

Invested

$1,671.35

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$790.29

Record

50%

19669-20037 (39706)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

PARIVISION

Invested

$1,353

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$392.9

Record

51%

1585-1527 (3112)

0xbb299ce4867ea634a83a254e24d1ffc5c148947aARB<$100

PARIVISION

Invested

$2,219.61

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$565.1

Record

50%

207-210 (417)

Both legs:

PARIVISION$1,919.6146.7¢-$605.1

G2$30060¢+$40

JustADonk

Invested

$1,109.36

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$5.55

Record

55%

903-749 (1652)

BillBenter2026

Invested

$999.4

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$21.53

Record

57%

18833-13941 (32774)

calculate10

Invested

$1,005.5

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$2.53

Record

53%

1234-1082 (2316)

hurrican

Invested

$1,000

Value

$926.67

PnL

-$73.33

Record

71%

1021-416 (1437)

yishiwuchengARB<$100

PARIVISION

Invested

$961.7

Value

$761.29

PnL

-$200.41

Record

51%

1840-1767 (3607)

Both legs:

PARIVISION$685.3530.7¢-$294.49

G2$276.3561.5¢+$94.07

FinHealARB<$100

Invested

$766.92

Value

$714.39

PnL

-$52.53

Record

59%

1328-921 (2249)

Both legs:

G2$582.0580.5¢-$32.88

PARIVISION$184.8726.9¢-$19.65

topdogbigboiCTR

PARIVISION

Invested

$333.34

Value

$500.56

PnL

+$167.22

Record

48%

9587-10544 (20131)

latvian.demonCTR

PARIVISION

Invested

$615

Value

$480

PnL

-$135

Record

54%

719-609 (1328)

facaigegeCTR

PARIVISION

Invested

$360.64

Value

$378.09

PnL

+$17.45

Record

48%

411-438 (849)

poshposhCTR

PARIVISION

Invested

$204.07

Value

$364.75

PnL

+$160.68

Record

58%

11000-8017 (19017)

testBruno2CTR

PARIVISION

Invested

$8,160.62

Value

$326.79

PnL

-$447.8

Record

58%

906-655 (1561)

12monkeysCTR

PARIVISION

Invested

$234.4

Value

$271.03

PnL

+$36.62

Record

36%

319-559 (878)

forsenxdCTR

PARIVISION

Invested

$551.37

Value

$245.72

PnL

-$305.65

Record

53%

1077-939 (2016)

0x4f2

Invested

$120.84

Value

$135.83

PnL

+$14.98

Record

52%

9198-8585 (17783)

iWasEnough

Invested

$96.02

Value

$124.6

PnL

+$28.58

Record

54%

6256-5419 (11675)

Up0nly

Invested

$389.57

Value

$91.51

PnL

+$128.47

Record

68%

983-472 (1455)

suntoriARB<$100

PARIVISION

Invested

$60.75

Value

$53.67

PnL

-$7.07

Record

45%

5638-6771 (12409)

Both legs:

G2$26.0870.9¢+$4.26

PARIVISION$34.6726¢-$11.33

lryyy<$100

Invested

$49.17

Value

$53.18

PnL

+$4.01

Record

45%

2252-2781 (5033)

Research grade

NeutralG2 at 89%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 21 top traders (52%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that G2 wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.0%

88.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$11.15

Max Loss

-$100.00

111.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.