Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Beijing Group B
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold G2 (20%) · G2 at 54¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 2
⚖️
Neutral
G2
5
G2 20%
$7.2K
$81.06
Research grade
NeutralG2 at 54%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 relativesignificance | G2avg 53.2¢ | $3.8K | $4.0K | +$164.24 | 57% 108-83 (191) |
RA RayayaCTR | PARIVISIONavg 47¢ | $1.9K | $1.8K | -$20 | 60% 1175-775 (1950) |
0X 0xf483653F527A9EE5730EAF28709C2856Ab5Fa89c-1765271749237CTR | PARIVISIONavg 47¢ | $1.5K | $1.4K | -$63.29 | 51% 346-337 (683) |
OD OddstormCTR<$100 | PARIVISIONavg 44¢ | $25.08 | $25.08 | +$0 | 38% 417-667 (1084) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | PARIVISIONavg 44¢ | $9.18 | $9.29 | +$0.1 | 57% 13804-10576 (24380) |
relativesignificanceInvested
$3,831.27
Value
$4.0K
PnL
+$164.24
Record
57%
108-83 (191)
Invested
$1,880
Value
$1.8K
PnL
-$20
Record
60%
1175-775 (1950)
Invested
$1,494.23
Value
$1.4K
PnL
-$63.29
Record
51%
346-337 (683)
Invested
$25.08
Value
$25.08
PnL
+$0
Record
38%
417-667 (1084)
Invested
$9.18
Value
$9.29
PnL
+$0.1
Record
57%
13804-10576 (24380)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
54.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.