Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 33 - Map 1 Winner

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold PARIVISION (40%) · PARIVISION at 99¢ · $11K held · ends Nov 15

PARIVISION99¢331¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

PARIVISION

Consensus Traders

PARIVISION 40%

Total Value

$10.6K

Combined PnL

$258.27

Smart Money Entry

91.7¢ → 98.5¢

+7% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralPARIVISION at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

PARIVISION

4 of 10 top traders (40%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

PARIVISION99%

332%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

PARIVISION4 traders

Total Value$10.3K

Total Shares10,574

Combined PnL+$368.9

336 traders

Total Value$272.79

Total Shares1,171

Combined PnL-$110.63

PARIVISION — 40%33 — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on PARIVISION. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpPARIVISION 100% · 1

Aligned

ctr33 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 100033 67% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RE redvinny	PARIVISIONavg 91.8¢	$6.9K	$7.2K	+$352.78	31% 62-140 (202)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	PARIVISIONavg 90.4¢	$3.0K	$2.6K	+$7.66	56% 4160-3248 (7408)
II iii252	PARIVISIONavg 98¢	$480.19	$482.64	+$2.45	0% 2-419 (421)
NO NotJumpCTR	33avg 50¢	$262.5	$254.63	-$7.87	50% 1112-1113 (2225)
poshposh<$100	PARIVISIONavg 87¢	$47.51	$53.52	+$6.01	49% 1306-1379 (2685)
TO TommyLeePeecaCTR	33avg 12.3¢	$182.38	$10.56	-$56.82	22% 65-231 (296)
PO PourpelNourpelCTR<$100	33avg 12¢	$17	$2.83	-$14.17	55% 81-66 (147)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	33avg 13¢	$16.01	$2.47	-$13.55	39% 1554-2430 (3984)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	33avg 19.9¢	$17.56	$1.77	-$15.79	38% 3804-6225 (10029)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	33avg 11¢	$2.97	$0.54	-$2.43	45% 963-1156 (2119)

redvinny

PARIVISION

Invested

$6,874.95

Value

$7.2K

PnL

+$352.78

Record

31%

62-140 (202)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

PARIVISION

Invested

$3,032.41

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$7.66

Record

56%

4160-3248 (7408)

iii252

PARIVISION

Invested

$480.19

Value

$482.64

PnL

+$2.45

Record

2-419 (421)

NotJumpCTR

Invested

$262.5

Value

$254.63

PnL

-$7.87

Record

50%

1112-1113 (2225)

poshposh<$100

PARIVISION

Invested

$47.51

Value

$53.52

PnL

+$6.01

Record

49%

1306-1379 (2685)

TommyLeePeecaCTR

Invested

$182.38

Value

$10.56

PnL

-$56.82

Record

22%

65-231 (296)

PourpelNourpelCTR<$100

Invested

$17

Value

$2.83

PnL

-$14.17

Record

55%

81-66 (147)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Invested

$16.01

Value

$2.47

PnL

-$13.55

Record

39%

1554-2430 (3984)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Invested

$17.56

Value

$1.77

PnL

-$15.79

Record

38%

3804-6225 (10029)

lryyyCTR<$100

Invested

$2.97

Value

$0.54

PnL

-$2.43

Record

45%

963-1156 (2119)

Research grade

NeutralPARIVISION at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

PARIVISION

4 of 10 top traders (40%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on PARIVISION. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpPARIVISION 100% · 1

Aligned

ctr33 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 100033 67% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that PARIVISION wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.5%

98.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.48

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.