Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner

8 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold PARIVISION (62%) · PARIVISION at 64¢ · $18K held · ends Nov 16

PARIVISION64¢100 Thieves36¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

PARIVISION

Consensus Traders

PARIVISION 62%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$18.1K

Combined PnL

-$347.97

Smart Money Entry

62.2¢ → 63.5¢

+2% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralPARIVISION at 64%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

PARIVISION

8 of 13 top traders (62%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

PARIVISION64%

100 Thieves37%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

PARIVISION8 traders

Total Value$8.2K

Total Shares12,640

Combined PnL+$176.54

100 Thieves5 traders

Total Value$2.8K

Total Shares7,625

Combined PnL-$524.51

PARIVISION — 62%100 Thieves — 38%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	PARIVISIONavg 59.2¢	$6.7K	$6.3K	-$204.02	56% 4181-3271 (7452)
└ PARIVISION leg	PARIVISIONavg 59.2¢	$3.8K	$4.2K	+$402.9
└ 100 Thieves leg	100 Thievesavg 43.4¢	$2.7K	$2.1K	-$606.92
AA aaaa298	PARIVISIONavg 67¢	$4.4K	$2.8K	-$529.46	2% 7-307 (314)
II iii252	PARIVISIONavg 68.5¢	$4.3K	$2.3K	-$149.21	1% 4-426 (430)
latvian.demonCTR	100 Thievesavg 35.4¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$41.84	14% 78-469 (547)
FR frohp5	PARIVISIONavg 55.3¢	$2.1K	$1.3K	+$518.98	60% 1265-840 (2105)
PN pnhctCTR	100 Thievesavg 35.6¢	$11.0K	$966.12	-$490.13	55% 26-21 (47)
10 10scat	PARIVISIONavg 56.4¢	$1.2K	$730.4	+$274.04	9% 56-545 (601)
ZT ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG	PARIVISIONavg 53.5¢	$479.99	$569.42	+$89.43	40% 354-534 (888)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	100 Thievesavg 51.1¢	$981.85	$355.87	-$38.99	50% 1156-1164 (2320)
└ PARIVISION leg	PARIVISIONavg 57.9¢	$193.86	$256.32	+$62.54
└ 100 Thieves leg	100 Thievesavg 51.1¢	$216.45	$99.55	-$101.53
TO TommyLeePeecaARB<$100	100 Thievesavg 32.7¢	$2.9K	$323.35	-$9.23	23% 73-238 (311)
└ 100 Thieves leg	100 Thievesavg 32.7¢	$211.13	$235.92	+$266.46
└ PARIVISION leg	PARIVISIONavg 66.3¢	$91.34	$87.43	-$275.7
tankfest2027	PARIVISIONavg 46¢	$266.38	$280.86	+$14.48	35% 7-13 (20)
DumplingBMFCTR	100 Thievesavg 51¢	$260.2	$262.76	+$2.55	8% 11-124 (135)
MR MrConsistencyCTR	100 Thievesavg 52¢	$225	$149.28	-$75.72	36% 39-70 (109)
BananaFarmer	PARIVISIONavg 56¢	$185.34	$145.62	-$39.72	38% 15-25 (40)
SE sentrioARB<$100	PARIVISIONavg 47.9¢	$98.51	$98.53	+$0.01	41% 1195-1702 (2897)
└ PARIVISION leg	PARIVISIONavg 47.9¢	$75.77	$75.11	-$0.66
└ 100 Thieves leg	100 Thievesavg 51¢	$22.75	$23.42	+$0.67
SU suntori<$100	PARIVISIONavg 50¢	$99.99	$97.99	-$2	46% 3336-3878 (7214)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	100 Thievesavg 22.6¢	$64.89	$61.83	-$3.05	39% 1595-2514 (4109)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

PARIVISION

Invested

$6,690.26

Value

$6.3K

PnL

-$204.02

Record

56%

4181-3271 (7452)

Both legs:

PARIVISION$3,783.3559.2¢+$402.9

100 Thieves$2,656.0243.4¢-$606.92

aaaa298

PARIVISION

Invested

$4,356.48

Value

$2.8K

PnL

-$529.46

Record

7-307 (314)

iii252

PARIVISION

Invested

$4,314.01

Value

$2.3K

PnL

-$149.21

Record

4-426 (430)

latvian.demonCTR

100 Thieves

Invested

$1,298.99

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$41.84

Record

14%

78-469 (547)

frohp5

PARIVISION

Invested

$2,055

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$518.98

Record

60%

1265-840 (2105)

pnhctCTR

100 Thieves

Invested

$11,006.22

Value

$966.12

PnL

-$490.13

Record

55%

26-21 (47)

10scat

PARIVISION

Invested

$1,233

Value

$730.4

PnL

+$274.04

Record

56-545 (601)

ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG

PARIVISION

Invested

$479.99

Value

$569.42

PnL

+$89.43

Record

40%

354-534 (888)

NotJumpARB<$100

100 Thieves

Invested

$981.85

Value

$355.87

PnL

-$38.99

Record

50%

1156-1164 (2320)

Both legs:

PARIVISION$193.8657.9¢+$62.54

100 Thieves$216.4551.1¢-$101.53

TommyLeePeecaARB<$100

100 Thieves

Invested

$2,877.66

Value

$323.35

PnL

-$9.23

Record

23%

73-238 (311)

Both legs:

100 Thieves$211.1332.7¢+$266.46

PARIVISION$91.3466.3¢-$275.7

tankfest2027

PARIVISION

Invested

$266.38

Value

$280.86

PnL

+$14.48

Record

35%

7-13 (20)

DumplingBMFCTR

100 Thieves

Invested

$260.2

Value

$262.76

PnL

+$2.55

Record

11-124 (135)

MrConsistencyCTR

100 Thieves

Invested

$225

Value

$149.28

PnL

-$75.72

Record

36%

39-70 (109)

BananaFarmer

PARIVISION

Invested

$185.34

Value

$145.62

PnL

-$39.72

Record

38%

15-25 (40)

sentrioARB<$100

PARIVISION

Invested

$98.51

Value

$98.53

PnL

+$0.01

Record

41%

1195-1702 (2897)

Both legs:

PARIVISION$75.7747.9¢-$0.66

100 Thieves$22.7551¢+$0.67

suntori<$100

PARIVISION

Invested

$99.99

Value

$97.99

PnL

-$2

Record

46%

3336-3878 (7214)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

100 Thieves

Invested

$64.89

Value

$61.83

PnL

-$3.05

Record

39%

1595-2514 (4109)

Research grade

NeutralPARIVISION at 64%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

PARIVISION

8 of 13 top traders (62%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that PARIVISION wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance65.6%

63.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$52.33

Max Loss

-$100.00

152.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.