Counter-Strike: Phantom vs ex-Zero Tenacity (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Stage

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Phantom (33%) · Phantom at 98¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 16

Phantom98¢ex-Zero Tenacity2¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Phantom

Consensus Traders

Phantom 33%

Total Value

$5.9K

Combined PnL

$906.81

Smart Money Entry

81.8¢ → 97.8¢

+19% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralPhantom at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Phantom

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Phantom98%

ex-Zero Tenacity2%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Phantom3 traders

Total Value$5.5K

Total Shares5,724

Combined PnL+$941.87

ex-Zero Tenacity6 traders

Total Value$356.88

Total Shares2,724

Combined PnL-$35.07

Phantom — 33%ex-Zero Tenacity — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Phantom. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrex-Zero Tenacity 75% · 8

Diverging

Top 1000ex-Zero Tenacity 67% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x04fbd55b0626ADd23661c448710a0194fcd25968-1789564287540	Phantomavg 92.9¢	$2.4K	$2.5K	+$123.97	53% 85-75 (160)
bot-rapin	Phantomavg 60¢	$1.2K	$1.7K	+$725.34	100% 39-0 (39)
JA JabJabich	Phantomavg 89.5¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$92.56	31% 29-66 (95)
NO NotJumpCTR	ex-Zero Tenacityavg 43.1¢	$266	$264.48	-$1.53	52% 820-759 (1579)
BU Burkilota1CTR	ex-Zero Tenacityavg 7.4¢	$128.96	$57.8	-$34.68	65% 184-99 (283)
0X 0x90d4B0aA65D33FEFC7F978688A803260A5A82DeE-1775326496677CTR<$100	ex-Zero Tenacityavg 7¢	$63.27	$18.89	+$6.69	64% 18-10 (28)
GA GaditimaCTR<$100	ex-Zero Tenacityavg 3.2¢	$15.06	$15.11	+$0.05	48% 274-292 (566)
0X 0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69CTR<$100	ex-Zero Tenacityavg 31¢	$4.03	$0.39	-$3.64	50% 153-153 (306)
SH shiifooCTR<$100	ex-Zero Tenacityavg 31¢	$2.17	$0.21	-$1.96	61% 1424-905 (2329)

0x04fbd55b0626ADd23661c448710a0194fcd25968-1789564287540

Phantom

Invested

$2,352.94

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$123.97

Record

53%

85-75 (160)

bot-rapin

Phantom

Invested

$1,200

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$725.34

Record

100%

39-0 (39)

JabJabich

Phantom

Invested

$1,265.81

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$92.56

Record

31%

29-66 (95)

NotJumpCTR

ex-Zero Tenacity

Invested

$266

Value

$264.48

PnL

-$1.53

Record

52%

820-759 (1579)

Burkilota1CTR

ex-Zero Tenacity

Invested

$128.96

Value

$57.8

PnL

-$34.68

Record

65%

184-99 (283)

0x90d4B0aA65D33FEFC7F978688A803260A5A82DeE-1775326496677CTR<$100

ex-Zero Tenacity

Invested

$63.27

Value

$18.89

PnL

+$6.69

Record

64%

18-10 (28)

GaditimaCTR<$100

ex-Zero Tenacity

Invested

$15.06

Value

$15.11

PnL

+$0.05

Record

48%

274-292 (566)

0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69CTR<$100

ex-Zero Tenacity

Invested

$4.03

Value

$0.39

PnL

-$3.64

Record

50%

153-153 (306)

shiifooCTR<$100

ex-Zero Tenacity

Invested

$2.17

Value

$0.21

PnL

-$1.96

Record

61%

1424-905 (2329)

Research grade

NeutralPhantom at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Phantom

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Phantom. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrex-Zero Tenacity 75% · 8

Diverging

Top 1000ex-Zero Tenacity 67% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Phantom wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.9%

97.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.15

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.