Counter-Strike: Procyon Gaming vs tao toma (BO3) - CCT South America Playoffs

2 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold tao toma (25%) · tao toma at 64¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 13

Procyon Gaming37¢tao toma63¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

tao toma

Consensus Traders

tao toma 25%

Total Value

$3.5K

Combined PnL

$77.74

Smart Money Entry

62.7¢ → 63.5¢

+1% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

Neutraltao toma at 64%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

tao toma

2 of 8 top traders (25%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Procyon Gaming37%

tao toma64%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

tao toma2 traders

Total Value$3.0K

Total Shares4,630

Combined PnL+$94.34

Procyon Gaming6 traders

Total Value$460.57

Total Shares1,301

Combined PnL-$16.6

tao toma — 25%Procyon Gaming — 75%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+8 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on tao toma. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrProcyon Gaming 80% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Procyon Gaming 75% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255F	tao tomaavg 62.2¢	$2.4K	$2.5K	+$105.79	55% 144-120 (264)
fyrsken	tao tomaavg 64.9¢	$519.43	$507.99	-$11.45	48% 28-30 (58)
TO topdogbigboiCTR	Procyon Gamingavg 36.5¢	$210.03	$201.62	-$8.41	37% 538-932 (1470)
38 38791873984189CTR	Procyon Gamingavg 36.5¢	$399.89	$175.19	-$6.83	48% 2223-2408 (4631)
BI biying88888CTR<$100	Procyon Gamingavg 35¢	$43.75	$45.63	+$1.88	42% 167-231 (398)
BI biying99999CTR<$100	Procyon Gamingavg 35.5¢	$14.93	$14.72	-$0.21	30% 72-167 (239)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Procyon Gamingavg 38¢	$15.96	$14.28	-$1.68	49% 1077-1133 (2210)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Procyon Gamingavg 39¢	$10.47	$9.13	-$1.34	47% 1625-1826 (3451)

0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255F

tao toma

Invested

$2,383.84

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$105.79

Record

55%

144-120 (264)

fyrsken

tao toma

Invested

$519.43

Value

$507.99

PnL

-$11.45

Record

48%

28-30 (58)

topdogbigboiCTR

Procyon Gaming

Invested

$210.03

Value

$201.62

PnL

-$8.41

Record

37%

538-932 (1470)

38791873984189CTR

Procyon Gaming

Invested

$399.89

Value

$175.19

PnL

-$6.83

Record

48%

2223-2408 (4631)

biying88888CTR<$100

Procyon Gaming

Invested

$43.75

Value

$45.63

PnL

+$1.88

Record

42%

167-231 (398)

biying99999CTR<$100

Procyon Gaming

Invested

$14.93

Value

$14.72

PnL

-$0.21

Record

30%

72-167 (239)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Procyon Gaming

Invested

$15.96

Value

$14.28

PnL

-$1.68

Record

49%

1077-1133 (2210)

suntoriCTR<$100

Procyon Gaming

Invested

$10.47

Value

$9.13

PnL

-$1.34

Record

47%

1625-1826 (3451)

Research grade

Neutraltao toma at 64%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

tao toma

2 of 8 top traders (25%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+8 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on tao toma. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrProcyon Gaming 80% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Procyon Gaming 75% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that tao toma wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance65.6%

63.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$52.33

Max Loss

-$100.00

152.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.