Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Iberian Soul, while the market favors Omega (56%). 8 of 19 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Counter-Strike: Omega vs Iberian Soul (BO3) - CCT Europe Playoffs

8 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold Iberian Soul (42%) · Iberian Soul at 44¢ · $40K held · ends Nov 15

Omega56¢Iberian Soul44¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Iberian Soul

Consensus Traders

Iberian Soul 42%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$40.3K

Combined PnL

-$171.9

Smart Money Entry

70.1¢ → 43.5¢

-38% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralIberian Soul at 44%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Iberian Soul

8 of 19 top traders (42%)Underdog side (market favors Omega 56%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Omega56%

Iberian Soul44%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Omega11 traders

Total Value$22.4K

Total Shares39,341

Combined PnL+$9.9K

Iberian Soul8 traders

Total Value$16.5K

Total Shares37,981

Combined PnL$-10.1K

Omega — 58%Iberian Soul — 42%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

47% of non-arb traders are on Iberian Soul. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperOmega 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOmega 67% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedOmega 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Omega 50% · 16

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VI vibing123	Omegaavg 30.3¢	$6.8K	$12.8K	+$6.0K	61% 1200-763 (1963)
LL lllllllIlllCTR	Iberian Soulavg 70.8¢	$11.0K	$6.7K	$-4.2K	5% 10-209 (219)
0X 0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255FCTR	Iberian Soulavg 69¢	$9.6K	$6.0K	$-3.5K	55% 174-144 (318)
HU humbleboy	Omegaavg 30¢	$2.6K	$4.9K	+$2.3K	3% 4-125 (129)
WI WiretransferxyzCTR	Iberian Soulavg 71¢	$5.8K	$3.6K	$-2.3K	56% 395-311 (706)
rafaleaoo	Omegaavg 28¢	$1.1K	$2.3K	+$1.2K	6% 42-659 (701)
T8 t89e4ygf6	Omegaavg 57¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$11.03	2% 3-151 (154)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Omegaavg 51.4¢	$876.03	$925.7	+$49.67	56% 4160-3248 (7408)
└ Omega leg	Omegaavg 51.4¢	$528.26	$591.4	+$63.14
└ Iberian Soul leg	Iberian Soulavg 44.2¢	$347.77	$334.3	-$13.47
VeryLucky888	Omegaavg 27.7¢	$521.85	$520.72	+$275.93	53% 1883-1643 (3526)
31 319113331313111	Omegaavg 48.5¢	$501.75	$304.87	+$80.32	55% 202-164 (366)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Omegaavg 50.5¢	$277.23	$277.63	+$0.4	50% 1112-1113 (2225)
└ Omega leg	Omegaavg 50.5¢	$145.98	$163.44	+$17.46
└ Iberian Soul leg	Iberian Soulavg 50¢	$131.25	$114.19	-$17.06
JU JuiceFarm	Omegaavg 26¢	$86.13	$188.83	+$102.7	54% 59-50 (109)
SE sentrio	Omegaavg 56.4¢	$124.25	$124.42	+$0.18	41% 1173-1667 (2840)
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fARB<$100	Omegaavg 48¢	$111.04	$115.66	+$4.62	61% 196-125 (321)
└ Omega leg	Omegaavg 48¢	$67.25	$79.8	+$12.55
└ Iberian Soul leg	Iberian Soulavg 52.5¢	$43.79	$35.86	-$7.93
MA manoamanoCTR<$100	Iberian Soulavg 72¢	$98.76	$59.67	-$39.09	56% 44-35 (79)
fyrskenCTR<$100	Iberian Soulavg 68¢	$91.58	$58.58	-$32.99	48% 66-71 (137)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Omegaavg 48¢	$45.94	$51.86	+$5.92	50% 2835-2864 (5699)
TH thatsabing0CTR<$100	Iberian Soulavg 57¢	$59.07	$45.08	-$13.99	62% 265-160 (425)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Iberian Soulavg 68.3¢	$25.32	$17.28	+$2.04	50% 2174-2194 (4368)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Omegaavg 57¢	$14.25	$14.25	+$0	43% 851-1135 (1986)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Omegaavg 29¢	$1.62	$3.19	+$1.57	39% 1554-2430 (3984)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Iberian Soulavg 69¢	$3.45	$2.18	-$1.28	46% 621-730 (1351)

vibing123

Omega

Invested

$6,818.84

Value

$12.8K

PnL

+$6.0K

Record

61%

1200-763 (1963)

lllllllIlllCTR

Iberian Soul

Invested

$10,960.27

Value

$6.7K

PnL

$-4.2K

Record

10-209 (219)

0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255FCTR

Iberian Soul

Invested

$9,584

Value

$6.0K

PnL

$-3.5K

Record

55%

174-144 (318)

humbleboy

Omega

Invested

$2,560.56

Value

$4.9K

PnL

+$2.3K

Record

4-125 (129)

WiretransferxyzCTR

Iberian Soul

Invested

$5,826.19

Value

$3.6K

PnL

$-2.3K

Record

56%

395-311 (706)

rafaleaoo

Omega

Invested

$1,119.99

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

42-659 (701)

t89e4ygf6

Omega

Invested

$1,247.84

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$11.03

Record

3-151 (154)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Omega

Invested

$876.03

Value

$925.7

PnL

+$49.67

Record

56%

4160-3248 (7408)

Both legs:

Omega$528.2651.4¢+$63.14

Iberian Soul$347.7744.2¢-$13.47

VeryLucky888

Omega

Invested

$521.85

Value

$520.72

PnL

+$275.93

Record

53%

1883-1643 (3526)

319113331313111

Omega

Invested

$501.75

Value

$304.87

PnL

+$80.32

Record

55%

202-164 (366)

NotJumpARB<$100

Omega

Invested

$277.23

Value

$277.63

PnL

+$0.4

Record

50%

1112-1113 (2225)

Both legs:

Omega$145.9850.5¢+$17.46

Iberian Soul$131.2550¢-$17.06

JuiceFarm

Omega

Invested

$86.13

Value

$188.83

PnL

+$102.7

Record

54%

59-50 (109)

sentrio

Omega

Invested

$124.25

Value

$124.42

PnL

+$0.18

Record

41%

1173-1667 (2840)

0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fARB<$100

Omega

Invested

$111.04

Value

$115.66

PnL

+$4.62

Record

61%

196-125 (321)

Both legs:

Omega$67.2548¢+$12.55

Iberian Soul$43.7952.5¢-$7.93

manoamanoCTR<$100

Iberian Soul

Invested

$98.76

Value

$59.67

PnL

-$39.09

Record

56%

44-35 (79)

fyrskenCTR<$100

Iberian Soul

Invested

$91.58

Value

$58.58

PnL

-$32.99

Record

48%

66-71 (137)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Omega

Invested

$45.94

Value

$51.86

PnL

+$5.92

Record

50%

2835-2864 (5699)

thatsabing0CTR<$100

Iberian Soul

Invested

$59.07

Value

$45.08

PnL

-$13.99

Record

62%

265-160 (425)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Iberian Soul

Invested

$25.32

Value

$17.28

PnL

+$2.04

Record

50%

2174-2194 (4368)

ameisgoat11<$100

Omega

Invested

$14.25

Value

$14.25

PnL

+$0

Record

43%

851-1135 (1986)

topdogbigboi<$100

Omega

Invested

$1.62

Value

$3.19

PnL

+$1.57

Record

39%

1554-2430 (3984)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Iberian Soul

Invested

$3.45

Value

$2.18

PnL

-$1.28

Record

46%

621-730 (1351)

Research grade

NeutralIberian Soul at 44%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Iberian Soul

8 of 19 top traders (42%)Underdog side (market favors Omega 56%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

47% of non-arb traders are on Iberian Soul. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperOmega 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOmega 67% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedOmega 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Omega 50% · 16

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Iberian Soul wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance45.7%

43.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$118.65

Max Loss

-$100.00

218.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.