Counter-Strike: Nexus vs MOUZ NXT - Map 1 Winner
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Nexus (43%) · Nexus at 95¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
Nexus
7
Nexus 43%
$1.7K
-$36.96
75.5¢ → 94.5¢
+25% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNexus at 95%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BI BillBenter2026 | Nexusavg 70.2¢ | $801.25 | $838.36 | +$37.1 | 21% 132-485 (617) |
31 319113331313111 | Nexusavg 82.9¢ | $478.47 | $451.86 | -$26.61 | 51% 61-59 (120) |
 0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f | Nexusavg 83¢ | $393.25 | $362.35 | -$30.9 | 65% 52-28 (80) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100 | MOUZ NXTavg 9.9¢ | $18.09 | $6.41 | -$11.68 | 53% 1788-1590 (3378) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | MOUZ NXTavg 31¢ | $5 | $4.27 | -$0.73 | 41% 3116-4481 (7597) |
LO lonmi2511CTR<$100 | MOUZ NXTavg 20.5¢ | $4.92 | $1.08 | -$3.84 | 60% 641-427 (1068) |
PA pauleta23CTR<$100 | MOUZ NXTavg 6¢ | $0.42 | $0.11 | -$0.32 | 28% 179-466 (645) |
Invested
$801.25
Value
$838.36
PnL
+$37.1
Record
21%
132-485 (617)
Invested
$478.47
Value
$451.86
PnL
-$26.61
Record
51%
61-59 (120)
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fInvested
$393.25
Value
$362.35
PnL
-$30.9
Record
65%
52-28 (80)
Invested
$18.09
Value
$6.41
PnL
-$11.68
Record
53%
1788-1590 (3378)
Invested
$5
Value
$4.27
PnL
-$0.73
Record
41%
3116-4481 (7597)
Invested
$4.92
Value
$1.08
PnL
-$3.84
Record
60%
641-427 (1068)
Invested
$0.42
Value
$0.11
PnL
-$0.32
Record
28%
179-466 (645)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
94.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.