Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Nexus, while the market favors BakS eSports (100%). 7 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Counter-Strike: Nexus vs BakS eSports - Map 1 Winner

7 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Nexus (54%) · Nexus at 0.1¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 11

Nexus<1¢BakS eSports>99¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Nexus

Consensus Traders

Nexus 54%

Total Value

$5.1K

Combined PnL

-$896.75

Smart Money Entry

40.9¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidNexus at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Nexus

7 of 13 top traders (54%)Underdog side (market favors BakS eSports 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Nexus0%

BakS eSports100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Nexus7 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares5,442

Combined PnL$-1.6K

BakS eSports6 traders

Total Value$2.9K

Total Shares2,931

Combined PnL+$702.82

Nexus — 54%BakS eSports — 46%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

55% of non-arb traders are on Nexus. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on BakS eSports) and the top 1000 (11 on Nexus) disagree here.

sharpBakS eSports 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNexus 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedBakS eSports 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Nexus 55% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR	Nexusavg 41.3¢	$1.9K	$1.2K	-$751.8	56% 3843-3017 (6860)
31 319113331313111CTR	Nexusavg 50.3¢	$1.7K	$948.07	-$738.32	52% 64-60 (124)
0X 0x2A97E8680FbED0fFCB4661cAc73B066dd3e12FFB-1771833636314	BakS eSportsavg 58.8¢	$493.12	$838.72	+$345.6	13% 18-125 (143)
CoinTrick	BakS eSportsavg 99.9¢	$684.39	$684.74	+$0.34	98% 64-1 (65)
0X 0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255F	BakS eSportsavg 53.5¢	$329.85	$579.58	+$249.72	54% 134-113 (247)
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f	BakS eSportsavg 68.4¢	$467.31	$427.61	-$39.7	67% 56-28 (84)
BI BillBenter2026	BakS eSportsavg 58.2¢	$202.64	$347.83	+$145.19	22% 136-488 (624)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Nexusavg 14.9¢	$89.76	$40.56	-$49.2	53% 1801-1611 (3412)
PA pauleta23<$100	BakS eSportsavg 89.2¢	$13.84	$15.51	+$1.67	29% 190-469 (659)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Nexusavg 42.6¢	$33.06	$4.66	-$28.4	48% 1332-1446 (2778)
alpheclabs2CTR<$100	Nexusavg 40¢	$15.41	$2.31	-$13.1	45% 114-137 (251)
LO lonmi2511CTR<$100	Nexusavg 8.2¢	$15.37	$0.94	-$14.43	60% 643-428 (1071)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Nexusavg 44¢	$5	$0.68	-$4.32	41% 3122-4487 (7609)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR

Nexus

Invested

$1,928.5

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$751.8

Record

56%

3843-3017 (6860)

319113331313111CTR

Nexus

Invested

$1,686.39

Value

$948.07

PnL

-$738.32

Record

52%

64-60 (124)

0x2A97E8680FbED0fFCB4661cAc73B066dd3e12FFB-1771833636314

BakS eSports

Invested

$493.12

Value

$838.72

PnL

+$345.6

Record

13%

18-125 (143)

CoinTrick

BakS eSports

Invested

$684.39

Value

$684.74

PnL

+$0.34

Record

98%

64-1 (65)

0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255F

BakS eSports

Invested

$329.85

Value

$579.58

PnL

+$249.72

Record

54%

134-113 (247)

0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f

BakS eSports

Invested

$467.31

Value

$427.61

PnL

-$39.7

Record

67%

56-28 (84)

BillBenter2026

BakS eSports

Invested

$202.64

Value

$347.83

PnL

+$145.19

Record

22%

136-488 (624)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Nexus

Invested

$89.76

Value

$40.56

PnL

-$49.2

Record

53%

1801-1611 (3412)

pauleta23<$100

BakS eSports

Invested

$13.84

Value

$15.51

PnL

+$1.67

Record

29%

190-469 (659)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Nexus

Invested

$33.06

Value

$4.66

PnL

-$28.4

Record

48%

1332-1446 (2778)

alpheclabs2CTR<$100

Nexus

Invested

$15.41

Value

$2.31

PnL

-$13.1

Record

45%

114-137 (251)

lonmi2511CTR<$100

Nexus

Invested

$15.37

Value

$0.94

PnL

-$14.43

Record

60%

643-428 (1071)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Nexus

Invested

Value

$0.68

PnL

-$4.32

Record

41%

3122-4487 (7609)

Research grade

AvoidNexus at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Nexus

7 of 13 top traders (54%)Underdog side (market favors BakS eSports 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

55% of non-arb traders are on Nexus. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on BakS eSports) and the top 1000 (11 on Nexus) disagree here.

sharpBakS eSports 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNexus 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedBakS eSports 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Nexus 55% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Nexus wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.