Counter-Strike: Nice Try vs GenOne (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Stage
6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Nice Try (75%) · Nice Try at 68¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
Nice Try
8
Nice Try 75%
$1.3K
$138.69
44.3¢ → 67.5¢
+52% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNice Try at 68%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
57% of non-arb traders are on Nice Try. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
VI vibing123 | Nice Tryavg 44¢ | $737.76 | $720.99 | -$16.77 | 63% 1075-641 (1716) |
GA Gaditima | Nice Tryavg 39¢ | $200.11 | $357.41 | +$157.3 | 47% 71-79 (150) |
CI cigarettes | Nice Tryavg 55¢ | $124.5 | $130.25 | +$5.75 | 53% 5381-4862 (10243) |
GL glennyorkshire<$100 | Nice Tryavg 49¢ | $28.27 | $40.67 | +$12.4 | 46% 31-37 (68) |
LR lryyy<$100 | Nice Tryavg 54¢ | $17.82 | $17.66 | -$0.16 | 50% 157-160 (317) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | GenOneavg 52.9¢ | $30.68 | $16.25 | -$14.43 | 48% 424-451 (875) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Nice Tryavg 72.3¢ | $12.3 | $12.34 | +$0.04 | 31% 170-384 (554) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | GenOneavg 50.7¢ | $13 | $7.56 | -$5.44 | 50% 1411-1415 (2826) |
Invested
$737.76
Value
$720.99
PnL
-$16.77
Record
63%
1075-641 (1716)
Invested
$200.11
Value
$357.41
PnL
+$157.3
Record
47%
71-79 (150)
Invested
$124.5
Value
$130.25
PnL
+$5.75
Record
53%
5381-4862 (10243)
Invested
$28.27
Value
$40.67
PnL
+$12.4
Record
46%
31-37 (68)
Invested
$17.82
Value
$17.66
PnL
-$0.16
Record
50%
157-160 (317)
Invested
$30.68
Value
$16.25
PnL
-$14.43
Record
48%
424-451 (875)
Invested
$12.3
Value
$12.34
PnL
+$0.04
Record
31%
170-384 (554)
Invested
$13
Value
$7.56
PnL
-$5.44
Record
50%
1411-1415 (2826)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
67.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.