Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Vitality, while the market favors Nemiga (100%). 23 of 33 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner

23 of 33 top Polymarket traders hold Vitality (70%) · Vitality at 0.1¢ · $192K held · ends Oct 30

Nemiga>99¢Vitality<1¢Ends Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Vitality

Consensus Traders

Vitality 70%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$192.3K

Combined PnL

$-14.2K

Smart Money Entry

73¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 23 traders

Research grade

AvoidVitality at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Vitality

23 of 33 top traders (70%)Underdog side (market favors Nemiga 100%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed23 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Nemiga100%

Vitality0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Nemiga10 traders

Total Value$52.6K

Total Shares107,957

Combined PnL+$3.3K

Vitality23 traders

Total Value$85.4K

Total Shares121,217

Combined PnL$-17.4K

Nemiga — 30%Vitality — 70%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Nemigaavg 40.3¢	$35.3K	$42.0K	+$6.6K	54% 56315-48472 (104787)
PN pnhctCTR	Vitalityavg 67.5¢	$35.4K	$37.7K	+$2.4K	54% 494-424 (918)
II iii252ARB<$100	Vitalityavg 59.1¢	$31.6K	$34.9K	+$3.3K	56% 1126-867 (1993)
└ Nemiga leg	Nemigaavg 17.6¢	$5.8K	$27.4K	+$21.6K
└ Vitality leg	Vitalityavg 59.1¢	$25.8K	$7.4K	$-18.4K
AA aaaa298ARB<$100	Vitalityavg 60.5¢	$22.9K	$19.4K	$-3.5K	59% 773-548 (1321)
└ Nemiga leg	Nemigaavg 28.7¢	$5.0K	$14.4K	+$9.4K
└ Vitality leg	Vitalityavg 60.5¢	$18.0K	$5.0K	$-12.9K
CA caishenbaoyoufadacai888CTR	Vitalityavg 74.3¢	$8.7K	$8.0K	-$680.5	57% 657-502 (1159)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR	Vitalityavg 78.7¢	$5.9K	$6.1K	+$247.36	52% 13719-12523 (26242)
RE redvinnyCTR	Vitalityavg 88¢	$8.4K	$5.7K	+$863.69	75% 1491-501 (1992)
3648393489047CTR	Vitalityavg 62.5¢	$9.6K	$5.5K	$-4.1K	61% 1118-706 (1824)
FA facaigegeCTR	Vitalityavg 69.1¢	$4.5K	$4.5K	+$29.17	48% 393-421 (814)
cruzNBA	Nemigaavg 30.1¢	$5.6K	$3.9K	$-1.7K	42% 400-560 (960)
0xHunterOkCTR	Vitalityavg 76¢	$3.5K	$3.6K	+$115.54	54% 247-211 (458)
46 467j6yjCTR	Vitalityavg 94.5¢	$20.4K	$3.4K	$-16.9K	97% 3293-115 (3408)
OM omnibus-076daa	Nemigaavg 25¢	$5.3K	$3.1K	$-2.2K	49% 18979-19390 (38369)
DE delacsynzy1CTR	Vitalityavg 59.7¢	$2.0K	$2.6K	+$628.68	52% 454-426 (880)
Satanishippie	Nemigaavg 24¢	$2.0K	$1.8K	-$208.33	48% 313-335 (648)
0X 0x63792b1833fB76595e65Dd0b91CBd8dea8a8c035-1791439997825CTR	Vitalityavg 66.1¢	$1.1K	$1.3K	+$206.92	47% 86-96 (182)
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554CTR	Vitalityavg 63.5¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$82.05	53% 3165-2783 (5948)
BI BillBenter2026CTR	Vitalityavg 65.3¢	$998.46	$1.0K	+$48.22	58% 18578-13636 (32214)
TO topdogbigboi	Nemigaavg 12.7¢	$137.23	$884.17	+$746.94	38% 3185-5189 (8374)
daddyradarCTR	Vitalityavg 69¢	$860.44	$866.68	+$6.24	66% 78-41 (119)
hasobidaleCTR	Vitalityavg 75¢	$825	$863.5	+$38.5	66% 220-111 (331)
JohnLKellyJrCTR	Vitalityavg 39¢	$779.61	$769.62	-$10	52% 1221-1120 (2341)
PA panpidaras1CTR	Vitalityavg 57.7¢	$904.76	$760.37	-$144.39	52% 194-176 (370)
SP sportteryqq	Nemigaavg 24¢	$769	$688.26	-$80.74	40% 415-633 (1048)
CL CLj0711CTR	Vitalityavg 50¢	$400	$388	-$12	44% 291-374 (665)

RN1

Nemiga

Invested

$35,321.7

Value

$42.0K

PnL

+$6.6K

Record

54%

56315-48472 (104787)

pnhctCTR

Vitality

Invested

$35,383.92

Value

$37.7K

PnL

+$2.4K

Record

54%

494-424 (918)

iii252ARB<$100

Vitality

Invested

$31,601.37

Value

$34.9K

PnL

+$3.3K

Record

56%

1126-867 (1993)

Both legs:

Nemiga$5,800.1517.6¢+$21.6K

Vitality$25,801.2259.1¢$-18.4K

aaaa298ARB<$100

Vitality

Invested

$22,934.61

Value

$19.4K

PnL

$-3.5K

Record

59%

773-548 (1321)

Both legs:

Nemiga$4,965.2928.7¢+$9.4K

Vitality$17,969.3260.5¢$-12.9K

caishenbaoyoufadacai888CTR

Vitality

Invested

$8,694.98

Value

$8.0K

PnL

-$680.5

Record

57%

657-502 (1159)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR

Vitality

Invested

$5,881.67

Value

$6.1K

PnL

+$247.36

Record

52%

13719-12523 (26242)

redvinnyCTR

Vitality

Invested

$8,371.4

Value

$5.7K

PnL

+$863.69

Record

75%

1491-501 (1992)

3648393489047CTR

Vitality

Invested

$9,571.11

Value

$5.5K

PnL

$-4.1K

Record

61%

1118-706 (1824)

facaigegeCTR

Vitality

Invested

$4,515.9

Value

$4.5K

PnL

+$29.17

Record

48%

393-421 (814)

cruzNBA

Nemiga

Invested

$5,552.96

Value

$3.9K

PnL

$-1.7K

Record

42%

400-560 (960)

0xHunterOkCTR

Vitality

Invested

$3,498.55

Value

$3.6K

PnL

+$115.54

Record

54%

247-211 (458)

467j6yjCTR

Vitality

Invested

$20,375.26

Value

$3.4K

PnL

$-16.9K

Record

97%

3293-115 (3408)

omnibus-076daa

Nemiga

Invested

$5,339.32

Value

$3.1K

PnL

$-2.2K

Record

49%

18979-19390 (38369)

delacsynzy1CTR

Vitality

Invested

$2,000

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$628.68

Record

52%

454-426 (880)

Satanishippie

Nemiga

Invested

$2,000

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$208.33

Record

48%

313-335 (648)

0x63792b1833fB76595e65Dd0b91CBd8dea8a8c035-1791439997825CTR

Vitality

Invested

$1,104.27

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$206.92

Record

47%

86-96 (182)

0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554CTR

Vitality

Invested

$1,052.47

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$82.05

Record

53%

3165-2783 (5948)

BillBenter2026CTR

Vitality

Invested

$998.46

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$48.22

Record

58%

18578-13636 (32214)

topdogbigboi

Nemiga

Invested

$137.23

Value

$884.17

PnL

+$746.94

Record

38%

3185-5189 (8374)

daddyradarCTR

Vitality

Invested

$860.44

Value

$866.68

PnL

+$6.24

Record

66%

78-41 (119)

hasobidaleCTR

Vitality

Invested

$825

Value

$863.5

PnL

+$38.5

Record

66%

220-111 (331)

JohnLKellyJrCTR

Vitality

Invested

$779.61

Value

$769.62

PnL

-$10

Record

52%

1221-1120 (2341)

panpidaras1CTR

Vitality

Invested

$904.76

Value

$760.37

PnL

-$144.39

Record

52%

194-176 (370)

sportteryqq

Nemiga

Invested

$769

Value

$688.26

PnL

-$80.74

Record

40%

415-633 (1048)

CLj0711CTR

Vitality

Invested

$400

Value

$388

PnL

-$12

Record

44%

291-374 (665)

Research grade

AvoidVitality at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Vitality

23 of 33 top traders (70%)Underdog side (market favors Nemiga 100%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed23 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Vitality wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.