Map Handicap: FURIA (-2.5) vs Nemiga (+2.5)

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Nemiga (78%) · Nemiga at 100¢ · $22K held · ends Oct 31

FURIA<1¢Nemiga>99¢Ends Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Nemiga

Consensus Traders

Nemiga 78%

Total Value

$22.4K

Combined PnL

-$656.02

Smart Money Entry

72.5¢ → 100¢

+38% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNemiga at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Nemiga

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

FURIA0%

Nemiga100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Nemiga7 traders

Total Value$22.3K

Total Shares24,132

Combined PnL+$3.7K

FURIA2 traders

Total Value$98.71

Total Shares15,725

Combined PnL$-4.4K

Nemiga — 78%FURIA — 22%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 55%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

78% of non-arb traders are on Nemiga. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on FURIA) and the top 1000 (8 on Nemiga) disagree here.

whaleFURIA 50% · 2

Diverging

sharpNemiga 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNemiga 86% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedFURIA 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Nemiga 88% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
forsenxd	Nemigaavg 71¢	$5.0K	$7.0K	+$2.0K	53% 1069-935 (2004)
Reformedx	Nemigaavg 71¢	$3.5K	$5.0K	+$1.4K	52% 824-773 (1597)
YI yishiwucheng	Nemigaavg 74¢	$3.0K	$4.0K	-$40.12	51% 1814-1741 (3555)
CA caishenbaoyoufadacai888	Nemigaavg 72¢	$3.6K	$3.8K	+$212.96	57% 663-508 (1171)
EG Egorkasxx	Nemigaavg 73¢	$1.9K	$2.0K	+$85.95	50% 50-50 (100)
noreasapa	Nemigaavg 99.9¢	$442.93	$443.15	+$0.22	91% 3580-335 (3915)
WO wokerjoesleeperCTR	FURIAavg 27¢	$621	$92	-$529	33% 6261-12980 (19241)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Nemigaavg 76.3¢	$30.5	$39.98	+$9.48	48% 2389-2622 (5011)
KA kaheCTR	FURIAavg 28.9¢	$3.9K	$6.71	$-3.9K	68% 590-283 (873)

forsenxd

Nemiga

Invested

$4,965.36

Value

$7.0K

PnL

+$2.0K

Record

53%

1069-935 (2004)

Reformedx

Nemiga

Invested

$3,550

Value

$5.0K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

52%

824-773 (1597)

yishiwucheng

Nemiga

Invested

$2,960.13

Value

$4.0K

PnL

-$40.12

Record

51%

1814-1741 (3555)

caishenbaoyoufadacai888

Nemiga

Invested

$3,607.71

Value

$3.8K

PnL

+$212.96

Record

57%

663-508 (1171)

Egorkasxx

Nemiga

Invested

$1,930.67

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$85.95

Record

50%

50-50 (100)

noreasapa

Nemiga

Invested

$442.93

Value

$443.15

PnL

+$0.22

Record

91%

3580-335 (3915)

wokerjoesleeperCTR

FURIA

Invested

$621

Value

$92

PnL

-$529

Record

33%

6261-12980 (19241)

ameisgoat11<$100

Nemiga

Invested

$30.5

Value

$39.98

PnL

+$9.48

Record

48%

2389-2622 (5011)

kaheCTR

FURIA

Invested

$3,874.33

Value

$6.71

PnL

$-3.9K

Record

68%

590-283 (873)

Research grade

NeutralNemiga at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Nemiga

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 55%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

78% of non-arb traders are on Nemiga. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on FURIA) and the top 1000 (8 on Nemiga) disagree here.

whaleFURIA 50% · 2

Diverging

sharpNemiga 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNemiga 86% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedFURIA 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Nemiga 88% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Nemiga wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.