Counter-Strike: NAVI Junior vs SANCTUM - Map 1 Winner
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold NAVI Junior (50%) · NAVI Junior at 99¢ · $462 held · ends Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
NAVI Junior
4
NAVI Junior 50%
$461.92
$95.2
77.2¢ → 99¢
+28% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNAVI Junior at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
31 319113331313111 | NAVI Junioravg 77¢ | $348.52 | $449.85 | +$101.33 | 42% 37-51 (88) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | SANCTUMavg 21¢ | $9.99 | $6.89 | -$3.1 | 41% 3022-4424 (7446) |
PA pauleta23<$100 | NAVI Junioravg 91¢ | $7.47 | $5.14 | -$2.33 | 22% 117-422 (539) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | SANCTUMavg 20¢ | $0.73 | $0.04 | -$0.69 | 48% 840-912 (1752) |
Invested
$348.52
Value
$449.85
PnL
+$101.33
Record
42%
37-51 (88)
Invested
$9.99
Value
$6.89
PnL
-$3.1
Record
41%
3022-4424 (7446)
Invested
$7.47
Value
$5.14
PnL
-$2.33
Record
22%
117-422 (539)
Invested
$0.73
Value
$0.04
PnL
-$0.69
Record
48%
840-912 (1752)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.