Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Team Falcons, while the market favors Natus Vincere (72%). 6 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5)

6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Team Falcons (86%) · Team Falcons at 28¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 2

Team Falcons28¢Natus Vincere72¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Team Falcons

Consensus Traders

Team Falcons 86%

Total Value

$6.3K

Combined PnL

$154.77

Smart Money Entry

29.3¢ → 28.5¢

-3% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidTeam Falcons at 28%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Team Falcons

6 of 7 top traders (86%)Underdog side (market favors Natus Vincere 72%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Team Falcons28%

Natus Vincere72%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Natus Vincere1 trader

Total Value$2.7K

Total Shares4,040

Combined PnL+$122.85

Team Falcons6 traders

Total Value$3.6K

Total Shares12,209

Combined PnL+$31.92

Natus Vincere — 14%Team Falcons — 86%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
relativesignificance	Natus Vincereavg 64.5¢	$2.6K	$2.7K	+$122.85	56% 116-90 (206)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR	Team Falconsavg 29.4¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	+$10.13	47% 2575-2863 (5438)
forsenxdCTR	Team Falconsavg 29¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$19.08	53% 1074-939 (2013)
VeryLucky888CTR	Team Falconsavg 29.5¢	$221.25	$213.75	-$7.5	58% 42718-31089 (73807)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR	Team Falconsavg 30¢	$150	$162.5	+$12.5	53% 5696-5032 (10728)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Team Falconsavg 37¢	$14.6	$12.82	-$1.78	36% 16083-28096 (44179)
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100	Team Falconsavg 37¢	$4.14	$3.64	-$0.5	76% 11358-3527 (14885)

relativesignificance

Natus Vincere

Invested

$2,603.84

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$122.85

Record

56%

116-90 (206)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR

Team Falcons

Invested

$2,082.39

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$10.13

Record

47%

2575-2863 (5438)

forsenxdCTR

Team Falcons

Invested

$1,106.39

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$19.08

Record

53%

1074-939 (2013)

VeryLucky888CTR

Team Falcons

Invested

$221.25

Value

$213.75

PnL

-$7.5

Record

58%

42718-31089 (73807)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR

Team Falcons

Invested

$150

Value

$162.5

PnL

+$12.5

Record

53%

5696-5032 (10728)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Team Falcons

Invested

$14.6

Value

$12.82

PnL

-$1.78

Record

36%

16083-28096 (44179)

Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100

Team Falcons

Invested

$4.14

Value

$3.64

PnL

-$0.5

Record

76%

11358-3527 (14885)

Research grade

AvoidTeam Falcons at 28%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Team Falcons

6 of 7 top traders (86%)Underdog side (market favors Natus Vincere 72%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Team Falcons wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance30.5%

28.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$227.44

Max Loss

-$100.00

327.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.