Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner

21 of 34 top Polymarket traders hold Natus Vincere (62%) · Natus Vincere at 83¢ · $113K held · ends Nov 2

Natus Vincere83¢Team Falcons17¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Natus Vincere

Consensus Traders

Natus Vincere 62%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$113.2K

Combined PnL

$5.2K

Smart Money Entry

54¢ → 82.5¢

+53% since entry · 21 traders

Research grade

Research candidateNatus Vincere at 83%

Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Natus Vincere

21 of 34 top traders (62%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Natus Vincere83%

Team Falcons18%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Team Falcons13 traders

Total Value$37.6K

Total Shares82,026

Combined PnL-$397.22

Natus Vincere21 traders

Total Value$52.6K

Total Shares73,483

Combined PnL+$5.6K

Team Falcons — 38%Natus Vincere — 62%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fARB<$100	Natus Vincereavg 61.6¢	$19.1K	$20.3K	+$1.2K	54% 2550-2185 (4735)
└ Natus Vincere leg	Natus Vincereavg 61.6¢	$12.5K	$16.1K	+$3.5K
└ Team Falcons leg	Team Falconsavg 32.9¢	$6.5K	$4.2K	$-2.4K
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Team Falconsavg 53.7¢	$17.1K	$16.4K	-$702.03	50% 19815-20158 (39973)
FK fkALCTR	Team Falconsavg 48.5¢	$8.2K	$8.5K	+$259.56	63% 2047-1221 (3268)
0X 0xbb299ce4867ea634a83a254e24d1ffc5c148947a	Natus Vincereavg 45¢	$6.6K	$8.3K	+$621.75	48% 315-345 (660)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Natus Vincereavg 60.9¢	$7.7K	$8.1K	+$403.16	52% 14029-12787 (26816)
0X 0x42145460F32A84Dd27DF2dbd7afbeE779213dB99-1759056243872	Natus Vincereavg 56.9¢	$6.0K	$7.4K	+$1.4K	43% 346-461 (807)
TR TrippleEX	Natus Vincereavg 49.3¢	$4.5K	$6.9K	+$2.4K	58% 306-220 (526)
PO PourpelNourpel	Natus Vincereavg 51¢	$2.5K	$3.1K	-$259.73	54% 624-532 (1156)
YI yishiwucheng	Natus Vincereavg 51.4¢	$2.2K	$2.8K	+$637.92	51% 1851-1781 (3632)
forsenxdCTR	Team Falconsavg 50¢	$2.7K	$2.8K	+$83.33	53% 1079-944 (2023)
SH shaw	Natus Vincereavg 46.7¢	$2.8K	$2.7K	-$74.01	53% 2186-1966 (4152)
A8 a8999CTR	Team Falconsavg 54¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	+$20.43	44% 1111-1410 (2521)
Tolkonevminus3	Natus Vincereavg 69.7¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	-$5.61	57% 74-55 (129)
WE weeeskies	Natus Vincereavg 46.5¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	-$44.5	53% 690-609 (1299)
RA Rayaya	Natus Vincereavg 48¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	+$20	60% 1188-785 (1973)
IV Ivan948CTR	Team Falconsavg 29.4¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	+$6.1	42% 82-112 (194)
minji	Natus Vincereavg 64.4¢	$1.5K	$1.7K	+$211.89	52% 1802-1664 (3466)
UN UnknownpoluyCTR	Team Falconsavg 33.9¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	-$20.22	43% 106-142 (248)
AN AnibalAugustoSardinhaCTR	Team Falconsavg 30¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	+$27.77	53% 85-75 (160)
DamwonChampions2026	Natus Vincereavg 58.3¢	$1.4K	$1.6K	+$152.99	53% 2076-1836 (3912)
0xheavy888	Natus Vincereavg 67¢	$1.4K	$1.6K	+$215.47	56% 7461-5982 (13443)
CA calculate10ARB<$100	Team Falconsavg 37.3¢	$5.1K	$1.4K	$-1.2K	53% 1237-1083 (2320)
└ Team Falcons leg	Team Falconsavg 37.3¢	$1.6K	$889.4	$-1.3K
└ Natus Vincere leg	Natus Vincereavg 65¢	$397.46	$483.07	+$98.07
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Natus Vincereavg 58.5¢	$953.69	$1.0K	+$93.68	43% 7731-10455 (18186)
└ Natus Vincere leg	Natus Vincereavg 58.5¢	$660.59	$761.82	+$101.23
└ Team Falcons leg	Team Falconsavg 33.4¢	$293.1	$285.55	-$7.55
polaroid14CTR	Team Falconsavg 50¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	-$9.53	48% 258-277 (535)
HU hurrican	Natus Vincereavg 74.7¢	$1,000	$943.41	-$56.59	71% 1023-417 (1440)

0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fARB<$100

Natus Vincere

Invested

$19,084.48

Value

$20.3K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

54%

2550-2185 (4735)

Both legs:

Natus Vincere$12,535.1761.6¢+$3.5K

Team Falcons$6,549.3132.9¢$-2.4K

omnibus-076daaCTR

Team Falcons

Invested

$17,056.82

Value

$16.4K

PnL

-$702.03

Record

50%

19815-20158 (39973)

fkALCTR

Team Falcons

Invested

$8,225.03

Value

$8.5K

PnL

+$259.56

Record

63%

2047-1221 (3268)

0xbb299ce4867ea634a83a254e24d1ffc5c148947a

Natus Vincere

Invested

$6,621.72

Value

$8.3K

PnL

+$621.75

Record

48%

315-345 (660)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Natus Vincere

Invested

$7,677.62

Value

$8.1K

PnL

+$403.16

Record

52%

14029-12787 (26816)

0x42145460F32A84Dd27DF2dbd7afbeE779213dB99-1759056243872

Natus Vincere

Invested

$6,000

Value

$7.4K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

43%

346-461 (807)

TrippleEX

Natus Vincere

Invested

$4,502.79

Value

$6.9K

PnL

+$2.4K

Record

58%

306-220 (526)

PourpelNourpel

Natus Vincere

Invested

$2,466.35

Value

$3.1K

PnL

-$259.73

Record

54%

624-532 (1156)

yishiwucheng

Natus Vincere

Invested

$2,192.01

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$637.92

Record

51%

1851-1781 (3632)

forsenxdCTR

Team Falcons

Invested

$2,734.65

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$83.33

Record

53%

1079-944 (2023)

shaw

Natus Vincere

Invested

$2,777.95

Value

$2.7K

PnL

-$74.01

Record

53%

2186-1966 (4152)

a8999CTR

Team Falcons

Invested

$2,066.04

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$20.43

Record

44%

1111-1410 (2521)

Tolkonevminus3

Natus Vincere

Invested

$1,971.41

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$5.61

Record

57%

74-55 (129)

weeeskies

Natus Vincere

Invested

$2,000.99

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$44.5

Record

53%

690-609 (1299)

Rayaya

Natus Vincere

Invested

$1,920

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$20

Record

60%

1188-785 (1973)

Ivan948CTR

Team Falcons

Invested

$1,875.32

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$6.1

Record

42%

82-112 (194)

minji

Natus Vincere

Invested

$1,495.75

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$211.89

Record

52%

1802-1664 (3466)

UnknownpoluyCTR

Team Falcons

Invested

$1,720.97

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$20.22

Record

43%

106-142 (248)

AnibalAugustoSardinhaCTR

Team Falcons

Invested

$1,666.5

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$27.77

Record

53%

85-75 (160)

DamwonChampions2026

Natus Vincere

Invested

$1,443.66

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$152.99

Record

53%

2076-1836 (3912)

0xheavy888

Natus Vincere

Invested

$1,373.6

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$215.47

Record

56%

7461-5982 (13443)

calculate10ARB<$100

Team Falcons

Invested

$5,086.43

Value

$1.4K

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

53%

1237-1083 (2320)

Both legs:

Team Falcons$1,578.4537.3¢$-1.3K

Natus Vincere$397.4665¢+$98.07

NotJumpARB<$100

Natus Vincere

Invested

$953.69

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$93.68

Record

43%

7731-10455 (18186)

Both legs:

Natus Vincere$660.5958.5¢+$101.23

Team Falcons$293.133.4¢-$7.55

polaroid14CTR

Team Falcons

Invested

$1,039.29

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$9.53

Record

48%

258-277 (535)

hurrican

Natus Vincere

Invested

$1,000

Value

$943.41

PnL

-$56.59

Record

71%

1023-417 (1440)

Research grade

Research candidateNatus Vincere at 83%

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Natus Vincere

21 of 34 top traders (62%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Natus Vincere wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance84.2%

82.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$18.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

118.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.