Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold G2, while the market favors MOUZ (67%). 2 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs G2 - Map 1 Winner

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold G2 (50%) · G2 at 34¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 11

MOUZ67¢G233¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

G2 50%

Total Value

$1.0K

Combined PnL

$30.84

Smart Money Entry

31¢ → 33.5¢

+8% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralG2 at 34%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors MOUZ 67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

MOUZ67%

G234%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

G22 traders

Total Value$992.72

Total Shares3,105

Combined PnL+$29.82

MOUZ2 traders

Total Value$48.94

Total Shares58

Combined PnL+$1.02

G2 — 50%MOUZ — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
forsenxdCTR	G2avg 31¢	$939.18	$969.47	+$30.3	49% 355-375 (730)
GH ghorrock<$100	MOUZavg 66.7¢	$44.83	$38.72	+$0.8	54% 512-439 (951)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	G2avg 31.6¢	$23.73	$23.25	-$0.48	48% 1202-1284 (2486)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	MOUZavg 66.5¢	$9.99	$10.22	+$0.23	41% 3104-4461 (7565)

forsenxdCTR

Invested

$939.18

Value

$969.47

PnL

+$30.3

Record

49%

355-375 (730)

ghorrock<$100

MOUZ

Invested

$44.83

Value

$38.72

PnL

+$0.8

Record

54%

512-439 (951)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Invested

$23.73

Value

$23.25

PnL

-$0.48

Record

48%

1202-1284 (2486)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

MOUZ

Invested

$9.99

Value

$10.22

PnL

+$0.23

Record

41%

3104-4461 (7565)

Research grade

NeutralG2 at 34%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors MOUZ 67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that G2 wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance35.6%

33.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$180.66

Max Loss

-$100.00

280.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.