Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold MOUZ, while the market favors FURIA (59%). 10 of 21 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner

10 of 21 top Polymarket traders hold MOUZ (48%) · MOUZ at 42¢ · $75K held · ends Oct 30

MOUZ42¢FURIA58¢Ends Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

MOUZ

Consensus Traders

MOUZ 48%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$74.7K

Combined PnL

$1.7K

Smart Money Entry

56.1¢ → 41.5¢

-26% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralMOUZ at 42%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

MOUZ

10 of 21 top traders (48%)Underdog side (market favors FURIA 59%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

MOUZ42%

FURIA59%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

MOUZ10 traders

Total Value$38.8K

Total Shares68,518

Combined PnL+$189.89

FURIA11 traders

Total Value$21.2K

Total Shares44,843

Combined PnL+$1.5K

MOUZ — 48%FURIA — 52%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on MOUZ. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleMOUZ 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrMOUZ 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000FURIA 63% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	MOUZavg 57.6¢	$27.5K	$27.6K	+$169.93	49% 18981-19394 (38375)
CA caishenbaoyoufadacai888	FURIAavg 42.2¢	$6.3K	$7.7K	+$1.4K	57% 657-502 (1159)
RN1ARB<$100	FURIAavg 52.4¢	$8.3K	$7.5K	-$853.77	54% 56317-48472 (104789)
└ FURIA leg	FURIAavg 52.4¢	$4.9K	$4.3K	-$649.13
└ MOUZ leg	MOUZavg 58¢	$3.4K	$3.2K	-$204.64
AN AnibalAugustoSardinha	FURIAavg 42.6¢	$5.7K	$5.6K	+$255.54	51% 72-68 (140)
SU suleng66CTR	MOUZavg 56.8¢	$5.0K	$5.1K	-$116.25	64% 201-115 (316)
II iii252	FURIAavg 43.4¢	$3.9K	$3.8K	-$79.07	56% 1126-867 (1993)
cruzNBA	FURIAavg 59.3¢	$3.1K	$3.1K	-$43.32	42% 400-560 (960)
PN pnhctARB<$100	FURIAavg 49.3¢	$2.8K	$3.1K	+$290.77	54% 496-424 (920)
└ FURIA leg	FURIAavg 49.3¢	$1.7K	$2.0K	+$312.37
└ MOUZ leg	MOUZavg 42.3¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$21.59
AA aaaa298ARB<$100	MOUZavg 57¢	$3.0K	$2.9K	-$51.27	59% 773-548 (1321)
└ MOUZ leg	MOUZavg 57¢	$1.7K	$1.6K	-$75.25
└ FURIA leg	FURIAavg 44.6¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$23.98
HO HongweiqianCTR	MOUZavg 47.3¢	$2.8K	$2.9K	+$70.16	48% 230-245 (475)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	MOUZavg 42.5¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$23.66	52% 13723-12523 (26246)
└ MOUZ leg	MOUZavg 42.5¢	$676.8	$660.73	-$16.07
└ FURIA leg	FURIAavg 54.2¢	$504.51	$544.24	+$39.73
SP sportteryqqCTR	MOUZavg 56.4¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$29.33	40% 415-633 (1048)
0X 0x11e5d9276b80c28d2167dB68ae4CfF6d8E09337e-1767473324789CTR	MOUZavg 56¢	$897.21	$929.25	+$32.04	51% 150-145 (295)
LO lonmi2511	FURIAavg 42¢	$574.04	$567.21	-$6.83	62% 1124-678 (1802)
XY Xyp9xFanCTR	MOUZavg 41¢	$533	$539.5	+$6.5	55% 465-383 (848)
BI BillBenter2026CTR	MOUZavg 50¢	$373.43	$362.3	-$11.13	58% 18579-13641 (32220)
Gamer-Girl	FURIAavg 43¢	$233.73	$236.45	+$2.72	43% 1781-2352 (4133)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR	MOUZavg 56.5¢	$224.45	$230.49	+$6.04	53% 5576-4935 (10511)
38 38791873984189	FURIAavg 43¢	$100.09	$98.16	-$1.93	46% 7951-9381 (17332)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	MOUZavg 40¢	$80	$83	+$3	38% 3192-5199 (8391)
GH ghorrock<$100	FURIAavg 43¢	$42.41	$31.03	-$0.45	57% 13602-10422 (24024)
poshposhCTR<$100	MOUZavg 48¢	$26.01	$26.28	+$0.27	59% 9923-6892 (16815)
YI yishiwucheng<$100	FURIAavg 42.7¢	$19.2	$23.78	+$4.57	51% 1799-1729 (3528)
forsenxd<$100	FURIAavg 41¢	$20.22	$20.96	+$0.74	53% 1057-923 (1980)
DS dsasdaas<$100	FURIAavg 42.5¢	$4.72	$4.72	+$0	63% 288-170 (458)

omnibus-076daaCTR

MOUZ

Invested

$27,457.05

Value

$27.6K

PnL

+$169.93

Record

49%

18981-19394 (38375)

caishenbaoyoufadacai888

FURIA

Invested

$6,324.09

Value

$7.7K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

57%

657-502 (1159)

RN1ARB<$100

FURIA

Invested

$8,309.11

Value

$7.5K

PnL

-$853.77

Record

54%

56317-48472 (104789)

Both legs:

FURIA$4,917.8552.4¢-$649.13

MOUZ$3,391.2658¢-$204.64

AnibalAugustoSardinha

FURIA

Invested

$5,677.21

Value

$5.6K

PnL

+$255.54

Record

51%

72-68 (140)

suleng66CTR

MOUZ

Invested

$5,000

Value

$5.1K

PnL

-$116.25

Record

64%

201-115 (316)

iii252

FURIA

Invested

$3,878.76

Value

$3.8K

PnL

-$79.07

Record

56%

1126-867 (1993)

cruzNBA

FURIA

Invested

$3,133.83

Value

$3.1K

PnL

-$43.32

Record

42%

400-560 (960)

pnhctARB<$100

FURIA

Invested

$2,794.95

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$290.77

Record

54%

496-424 (920)

Both legs:

FURIA$1,672.7349.3¢+$312.37

MOUZ$1,122.2242.3¢-$21.59

aaaa298ARB<$100

MOUZ

Invested

$2,964.47

Value

$2.9K

PnL

-$51.27

Record

59%

773-548 (1321)

Both legs:

MOUZ$1,715.757¢-$75.25

FURIA$1,248.7744.6¢+$23.98

HongweiqianCTR

MOUZ

Invested

$2,839.84

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$70.16

Record

48%

230-245 (475)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

MOUZ

Invested

$1,181.31

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$23.66

Record

52%

13723-12523 (26246)

Both legs:

MOUZ$676.842.5¢-$16.07

FURIA$504.5154.2¢+$39.73

sportteryqqCTR

MOUZ

Invested

$1,006

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$29.33

Record

40%

415-633 (1048)

0x11e5d9276b80c28d2167dB68ae4CfF6d8E09337e-1767473324789CTR

MOUZ

Invested

$897.21

Value

$929.25

PnL

+$32.04

Record

51%

150-145 (295)

lonmi2511

FURIA

Invested

$574.04

Value

$567.21

PnL

-$6.83

Record

62%

1124-678 (1802)

Xyp9xFanCTR

MOUZ

Invested

$533

Value

$539.5

PnL

+$6.5

Record

55%

465-383 (848)

BillBenter2026CTR

MOUZ

Invested

$373.43

Value

$362.3

PnL

-$11.13

Record

58%

18579-13641 (32220)

Gamer-Girl

FURIA

Invested

$233.73

Value

$236.45

PnL

+$2.72

Record

43%

1781-2352 (4133)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR

MOUZ

Invested

$224.45

Value

$230.49

PnL

+$6.04

Record

53%

5576-4935 (10511)

38791873984189

FURIA

Invested

$100.09

Value

$98.16

PnL

-$1.93

Record

46%

7951-9381 (17332)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

MOUZ

Invested

$80

Value

$83

PnL

+$3

Record

38%

3192-5199 (8391)

ghorrock<$100

FURIA

Invested

$42.41

Value

$31.03

PnL

-$0.45

Record

57%

13602-10422 (24024)

poshposhCTR<$100

MOUZ

Invested

$26.01

Value

$26.28

PnL

+$0.27

Record

59%

9923-6892 (16815)

yishiwucheng<$100

FURIA

Invested

$19.2

Value

$23.78

PnL

+$4.57

Record

51%

1799-1729 (3528)

forsenxd<$100

FURIA

Invested

$20.22

Value

$20.96

PnL

+$0.74

Record

53%

1057-923 (1980)

dsasdaas<$100

FURIA

Invested

$4.72

Value

$4.72

PnL

+$0

Record

63%

288-170 (458)

Research grade

NeutralMOUZ at 42%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

MOUZ

10 of 21 top traders (48%)Underdog side (market favors FURIA 59%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on MOUZ. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleMOUZ 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrMOUZ 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000FURIA 63% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that MOUZ wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance43.7%

41.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$128.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

228.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.