Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs MOUZ (BO5) - IEM Beijing Playoffs

7 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold MOUZ (50%) · MOUZ at 81¢ · $91K held · ends Nov 8

TheMongolz20¢MOUZ80¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

MOUZ

Consensus Traders

MOUZ 50%

Total Value

$91.4K

Combined PnL

-$413.11

Smart Money Entry

80.1¢ → 80.5¢

+1% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralMOUZ at 81%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

MOUZ

7 of 14 top traders (50%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

TheMongolz20%

MOUZ81%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

MOUZ7 traders

Total Value$85.9K

Total Shares107,807

Combined PnL-$478.22

TheMongolz7 traders

Total Value$5.5K

Total Shares27,495

Combined PnL+$65.11

MOUZ — 50%TheMongolz — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RO robloxgamblemaster-2008-10-18	MOUZavg 80.7¢	$41.7K	$41.6K	-$126.71	50% 7740-7873 (15613)
0X 0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255F	MOUZavg 79.5¢	$34.6K	$35.1K	+$442.68	55% 247-205 (452)
VI vibing123	MOUZavg 77¢	$5.7K	$5.4K	-$294.44	52% 1674-1564 (3238)
KateBollingerCTR	TheMongolzavg 20¢	$8.4K	$4.9K	-$120.52	68% 1824-865 (2689)
SU suleng66	MOUZavg 83.4¢	$4.0K	$3.5K	-$501.04	64% 214-120 (334)
HO HongweiqianCTR	TheMongolzavg 18.7¢	$382.91	$551.74	+$168.83	50% 294-297 (591)
38 38791873984189	MOUZavg 80.1¢	$270.19	$271.5	+$1.32	48% 63191-68207 (131398)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	TheMongolzavg 18.3¢	$42.38	$45.06	+$2.68	58% 23579-16943 (40522)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	TheMongolzavg 20.6¢	$29.03	$38	+$8.97	50% 1850-1866 (3716)
PA Pan9X<$100	MOUZavg 79.9¢	$26.36	$26.57	+$0.2	54% 10485-8797 (19282)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	TheMongolzavg 21.8¢	$7.15	$8.85	+$1.69	49% 1844-1936 (3780)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100	TheMongolzavg 18¢	$5.76	$8.64	+$2.88	24% 8014-25858 (33872)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	TheMongolzavg 21.8¢	$2.43	$3.01	+$0.58	48% 1776-1912 (3688)
RI Richidd<$100	MOUZavg 81.8¢	$2.02	$1.8	-$0.22	49% 61-63 (124)

robloxgamblemaster-2008-10-18

MOUZ

Invested

$41,713.82

Value

$41.6K

PnL

-$126.71

Record

50%

7740-7873 (15613)

0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255F

MOUZ

Invested

$34,633.26

Value

$35.1K

PnL

+$442.68

Record

55%

247-205 (452)

vibing123

MOUZ

Invested

$5,668.06

Value

$5.4K

PnL

-$294.44

Record

52%

1674-1564 (3238)

KateBollingerCTR

TheMongolz

Invested

$8,355.66

Value

$4.9K

PnL

-$120.52

Record

68%

1824-865 (2689)

suleng66

MOUZ

Invested

$4,034.73

Value

$3.5K

PnL

-$501.04

Record

64%

214-120 (334)

HongweiqianCTR

TheMongolz

Invested

$382.91

Value

$551.74

PnL

+$168.83

Record

50%

294-297 (591)

38791873984189

MOUZ

Invested

$270.19

Value

$271.5

PnL

+$1.32

Record

48%

63191-68207 (131398)

ghorrockCTR<$100

TheMongolz

Invested

$42.38

Value

$45.06

PnL

+$2.68

Record

58%

23579-16943 (40522)

LimousinCTR<$100

TheMongolz

Invested

$29.03

Value

$38

PnL

+$8.97

Record

50%

1850-1866 (3716)

Pan9X<$100

MOUZ

Invested

$26.36

Value

$26.57

PnL

+$0.2

Record

54%

10485-8797 (19282)

VenusianCTR<$100

TheMongolz

Invested

$7.15

Value

$8.85

PnL

+$1.69

Record

49%

1844-1936 (3780)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100

TheMongolz

Invested

$5.76

Value

$8.64

PnL

+$2.88

Record

24%

8014-25858 (33872)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

TheMongolz

Invested

$2.43

Value

$3.01

PnL

+$0.58

Record

48%

1776-1912 (3688)

Richidd<$100

MOUZ

Invested

$2.02

Value

$1.8

PnL

-$0.22

Record

49%

61-63 (124)

Research grade

NeutralMOUZ at 81%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

MOUZ

7 of 14 top traders (50%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that MOUZ wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance82.3%

80.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$21.57

Max Loss

-$100.00

121.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.