Counter-Strike: magic vs fnatic - Map 2 Winner

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold magic (55%) · magic at 69¢ · $13K held · ends Nov 15

magic69¢fnatic31¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

magic

Consensus Traders

magic 55%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$12.8K

Combined PnL

$1.1K

Smart Money Entry

51.7¢ → 69¢

+34% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

Neutralmagic at 69%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

magic

6 of 11 top traders (55%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

magic69%

fnatic31%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

magic6 traders

Total Value$8.7K

Total Shares13,462

Combined PnL+$1.7K

fnatic5 traders

Total Value$964.24

Total Shares2,652

Combined PnL-$599.51

magic — 55%fnatic — 45%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on magic. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpfnatic 100% · 1

Diverging

snipermagic 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrfnatic 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000magic 50% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AA aaaa298	magicavg 59.1¢	$3.5K	$4.1K	+$617.19	2% 7-305 (312)
II iii252	magicavg 46.5¢	$2.4K	$3.6K	+$1.2K	1% 4-424 (428)
PN pnhctARB<$100	fnaticavg 44.3¢	$4.9K	$1.8K	-$589.98	57% 26-20 (46)
└ fnatic leg	fnaticavg 44.3¢	$1.8K	$1.2K	-$662.61
└ magic leg	magicavg 65.8¢	$572.98	$600.55	+$72.63
TO TommyLeePeecaARB<$100	magicavg 64.4¢	$1.3K	$919.59	+$30.97	23% 72-235 (307)
└ magic leg	magicavg 64.4¢	$637.02	$682.47	+$54.63
└ fnatic leg	fnaticavg 37¢	$282.86	$237.12	-$23.66
0X 0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255F	magicavg 45.8¢	$774.32	$660.01	-$114.31	54% 179-150 (329)
KA KaczkaCTR	fnaticavg 60.9¢	$1.2K	$594.59	-$574.42	10% 23-211 (234)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	fnaticavg 52.9¢	$377.07	$366.44	-$10.64	50% 1136-1139 (2275)
└ fnatic leg	fnaticavg 52.9¢	$228.44	$205.23	-$23.21
└ magic leg	magicavg 48.4¢	$148.63	$161.21	+$12.58
RR rroosterCTR	fnaticavg 59.8¢	$303.72	$294.64	-$9.08	50% 59-58 (117)
0X 0xbb299ce4867ea634a83a254e24d1ffc5c148947a	magicavg 39¢	$217.42	$234.4	+$16.98	42% 21-29 (50)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	fnaticavg 39.8¢	$86.25	$69.31	-$16.94	46% 3282-3819 (7101)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	magicavg 41¢	$9.57	$11.75	+$2.18	39% 1579-2471 (4050)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	magicavg 41.4¢	$15	$5.93	+$0.93	38% 3822-6251 (10073)
LL lllllllIlllCTR<$100	fnaticavg 52¢	$2.6	$2.9	+$0.3	6% 13-212 (225)
poshposhCTR<$100	fnaticavg 45¢	$2.16	$2.79	+$0.62	49% 1336-1411 (2747)

aaaa298

magic

Invested

$3,525.86

Value

$4.1K

PnL

+$617.19

Record

7-305 (312)

iii252

magic

Invested

$2,427.95

Value

$3.6K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

4-424 (428)

pnhctARB<$100

fnatic

Invested

$4,935.67

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$589.98

Record

57%

26-20 (46)

Both legs:

fnatic$1,783.1744.3¢-$662.61

magic$572.9865.8¢+$72.63

TommyLeePeecaARB<$100

magic

Invested

$1,324.08

Value

$919.59

PnL

+$30.97

Record

23%

72-235 (307)

Both legs:

magic$637.0264.4¢+$54.63

fnatic$282.8637¢-$23.66

0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255F

magic

Invested

$774.32

Value

$660.01

PnL

-$114.31

Record

54%

179-150 (329)

KaczkaCTR

fnatic

Invested

$1,169.01

Value

$594.59

PnL

-$574.42

Record

10%

23-211 (234)

NotJumpARB<$100

fnatic

Invested

$377.07

Value

$366.44

PnL

-$10.64

Record

50%

1136-1139 (2275)

Both legs:

fnatic$228.4452.9¢-$23.21

magic$148.6348.4¢+$12.58

rroosterCTR

fnatic

Invested

$303.72

Value

$294.64

PnL

-$9.08

Record

50%

59-58 (117)

0xbb299ce4867ea634a83a254e24d1ffc5c148947a

magic

Invested

$217.42

Value

$234.4

PnL

+$16.98

Record

42%

21-29 (50)

suntoriCTR<$100

fnatic

Invested

$86.25

Value

$69.31

PnL

-$16.94

Record

46%

3282-3819 (7101)

topdogbigboi<$100

magic

Invested

$9.57

Value

$11.75

PnL

+$2.18

Record

39%

1579-2471 (4050)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

magic

Invested

$15

Value

$5.93

PnL

+$0.93

Record

38%

3822-6251 (10073)

lllllllIlllCTR<$100

fnatic

Invested

$2.6

Value

$2.9

PnL

+$0.3

Record

13-212 (225)

poshposhCTR<$100

fnatic

Invested

$2.16

Value

$2.79

PnL

+$0.62

Record

49%

1336-1411 (2747)

Research grade

Neutralmagic at 69%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

magic

6 of 11 top traders (55%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on magic. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpfnatic 100% · 1

Diverging

snipermagic 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrfnatic 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000magic 50% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that magic wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance71.0%

69.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$40.75

Max Loss

-$100.00

140.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.