Counter-Strike: magic vs BIG - Map 1 Winner

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold magic (60%) · magic at 100¢ · $15K held · ends Oct 27

magic>99¢BIG<1¢Ends Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

magic

Consensus Traders

magic 60%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$14.9K

Combined PnL

$1.1K

Smart Money Entry

52.9¢ → 100¢

+89% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

Neutralmagic at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

magic

3 of 5 top traders (60%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

magic100%

BIG0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

magic3 traders

Total Value$7.5K

Total Shares10,137

Combined PnL+$1.3K

BIG2 traders

Total Value$373.49

Total Shares1,115

Combined PnL-$170.19

magic — 60%BIG — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on magic. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on magic) and the top 1000 (5 on BIG) disagree here.

whalemagic 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpBIG 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrmagic 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedmagic 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000BIG 60% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	magicavg 52.8¢	$6.1K	$7.4K	+$1.2K	54% 55311-47349 (102660)
PN pnhctARB<$100	magicavg 62¢	$3.7K	$3.9K	+$161.48	54% 433-372 (805)
└ magic leg	magicavg 62¢	$2.4K	$2.6K	+$174.77
└ BIG leg	BIGavg 33.8¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	-$13.29
AA aaaa298ARB<$100	BIGavg 44.4¢	$3.3K	$2.5K	-$807.41	58% 722-519 (1241)
└ BIG leg	BIGavg 44.4¢	$2.6K	$1.9K	-$636.79
└ magic leg	magicavg 87.6¢	$707.91	$537.28	-$170.63
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	magicavg 61.1¢	$667.1	$662.11	-$4.99	52% 13467-12324 (25791)
└ magic leg	magicavg 61.1¢	$365.39	$397.72	+$32.33
└ BIG leg	BIGavg 38.2¢	$301.71	$264.39	-$37.32
TO TommyLeePeecaCTR	BIGavg 48.6¢	$2.8K	$329.26	-$148.09	54% 1024-865 (1889)
0X 0x5E5175106a7Dbbd92B10f1b56458Fc8c1Bdd42ce-1730865746538	magicavg 55¢	$110	$133	+$23	68% 1437-683 (2120)
poshposhCTR<$100	BIGavg 50.2¢	$66.33	$44.23	-$22.1	60% 9075-5994 (15069)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	magicavg 93¢	$4.65	$5	+$0.35	36% 14556-26000 (40556)

RN1

magic

Invested

$6,118.12

Value

$7.4K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

54%

55311-47349 (102660)

pnhctARB<$100

magic

Invested

$3,691.63

Value

$3.9K

PnL

+$161.48

Record

54%

433-372 (805)

Both legs:

magic$2,405.2462¢+$174.77

BIG$1,286.3933.8¢-$13.29

aaaa298ARB<$100

BIG

Invested

$3,292.95

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$807.41

Record

58%

722-519 (1241)

Both legs:

BIG$2,585.0444.4¢-$636.79

magic$707.9187.6¢-$170.63

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

magic

Invested

$667.1

Value

$662.11

PnL

-$4.99

Record

52%

13467-12324 (25791)

Both legs:

magic$365.3961.1¢+$32.33

BIG$301.7138.2¢-$37.32

TommyLeePeecaCTR

BIG

Invested

$2,829.94

Value

$329.26

PnL

-$148.09

Record

54%

1024-865 (1889)

0x5E5175106a7Dbbd92B10f1b56458Fc8c1Bdd42ce-1730865746538

magic

Invested

$110

Value

$133

PnL

+$23

Record

68%

1437-683 (2120)

poshposhCTR<$100

BIG

Invested

$66.33

Value

$44.23

PnL

-$22.1

Record

60%

9075-5994 (15069)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

magic

Invested

$4.65

Value

PnL

+$0.35

Record

36%

14556-26000 (40556)

Research grade

Neutralmagic at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

magic

3 of 5 top traders (60%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on magic. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on magic) and the top 1000 (5 on BIG) disagree here.

whalemagic 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpBIG 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrmagic 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedmagic 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000BIG 60% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that magic wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.