Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Spirit Academy, while the market favors LUNTIKI (56%). 12 of 15 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Counter-Strike: LUNTIKI vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Stage

12 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Spirit Academy (80%) · Spirit Academy at 44¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 14

LUNTIKI56¢Spirit Academy44¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Spirit Academy

Consensus Traders

Spirit Academy 80%

Total Value

$3.0K

Combined PnL

-$61.75

Smart Money Entry

51.5¢ → 43.5¢

-16% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralSpirit Academy at 44%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Spirit Academy

12 of 15 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors LUNTIKI 56%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

LUNTIKI56%

Spirit Academy44%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

LUNTIKI3 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares2,494

Combined PnL+$74.71

Spirit Academy12 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares3,269

Combined PnL-$136.46

LUNTIKI — 20%Spirit Academy — 80%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
WI Wiretransferxyz	LUNTIKIavg 52.9¢	$891.7	$952.48	+$60.78	56% 390-306 (696)
JU JuiceFarmCTR	Spirit Academyavg 60¢	$719.99	$582	-$138	59% 42-29 (71)
38 38791873984189CTR	Spirit Academyavg 47.5¢	$396.14	$404.28	+$8.14	48% 3192-3494 (6686)
VI vibing123	LUNTIKIavg 55¢	$345.01	$354.42	+$9.41	62% 1130-685 (1815)
poshposhCTR	Spirit Academyavg 45.6¢	$146.76	$146.89	+$0.13	48% 1079-1157 (2236)
VeryLucky888CTR	Spirit Academyavg 45.2¢	$135.73	$133.48	-$2.25	53% 1318-1151 (2469)
GA GaditimaCTR	Spirit Academyavg 49¢	$122.5	$121.25	-$1.25	48% 269-286 (555)
GT gt7238CTR	Spirit Academyavg 44¢	$114.4	$111.8	-$2.6	7% 38-488 (526)
MA manoamano	LUNTIKIavg 54¢	$97.84	$102.37	+$4.53	55% 29-24 (53)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Spirit Academyavg 45.8¢	$32.07	$31.15	-$0.92	50% 1579-1603 (3182)
BI biying99999CTR<$100	Spirit Academyavg 46¢	$11.04	$11.64	+$0.6	34% 101-192 (293)
FU Fund01CTR<$100	Spirit Academyavg 45¢	$4.5	$4.35	-$0.15	— 6-4 (10)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Spirit Academyavg 45¢	$3.51	$3.39	-$0.12	49% 3769-3940 (7709)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Spirit Academyavg 44¢	$2.2	$2.23	+$0.02	42% 979-1345 (2324)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Spirit Academyavg 45¢	$2.25	$2.18	-$0.08	48% 2045-2201 (4246)

Wiretransferxyz

LUNTIKI

Invested

$891.7

Value

$952.48

PnL

+$60.78

Record

56%

390-306 (696)

JuiceFarmCTR

Spirit Academy

Invested

$719.99

Value

$582

PnL

-$138

Record

59%

42-29 (71)

38791873984189CTR

Spirit Academy

Invested

$396.14

Value

$404.28

PnL

+$8.14

Record

48%

3192-3494 (6686)

vibing123

LUNTIKI

Invested

$345.01

Value

$354.42

PnL

+$9.41

Record

62%

1130-685 (1815)

poshposhCTR

Spirit Academy

Invested

$146.76

Value

$146.89

PnL

+$0.13

Record

48%

1079-1157 (2236)

VeryLucky888CTR

Spirit Academy

Invested

$135.73

Value

$133.48

PnL

-$2.25

Record

53%

1318-1151 (2469)

GaditimaCTR

Spirit Academy

Invested

$122.5

Value

$121.25

PnL

-$1.25

Record

48%

269-286 (555)

gt7238CTR

Spirit Academy

Invested

$114.4

Value

$111.8

PnL

-$2.6

Record

38-488 (526)

manoamano

LUNTIKI

Invested

$97.84

Value

$102.37

PnL

+$4.53

Record

55%

29-24 (53)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Spirit Academy

Invested

$32.07

Value

$31.15

PnL

-$0.92

Record

50%

1579-1603 (3182)

biying99999CTR<$100

Spirit Academy

Invested

$11.04

Value

$11.64

PnL

+$0.6

Record

34%

101-192 (293)

Fund01CTR<$100

Spirit Academy

Invested

$4.5

Value

$4.35

PnL

-$0.15

Record

—

6-4 (10)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Spirit Academy

Invested

$3.51

Value

$3.39

PnL

-$0.12

Record

49%

3769-3940 (7709)

sentrioCTR<$100

Spirit Academy

Invested

$2.2

Value

$2.23

PnL

+$0.02

Record

42%

979-1345 (2324)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Spirit Academy

Invested

$2.25

Value

$2.18

PnL

-$0.08

Record

48%

2045-2201 (4246)

Research grade

NeutralSpirit Academy at 44%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Spirit Academy

12 of 15 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors LUNTIKI 56%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Spirit Academy wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance45.7%

43.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$118.65

Max Loss

-$100.00

218.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.