Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold LPH Gaming, while the market favors maybe (51%). 3 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Counter-Strike: LPH Gaming vs maybe - Map 2 Winner

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold LPH Gaming (38%) · LPH Gaming at 50¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 12

LPH Gaming50¢maybe50¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

LPH Gaming

Consensus Traders

LPH Gaming 38%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.1K

Combined PnL

$134.15

Smart Money Entry

47.7¢ → 49.5¢

+4% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralLPH Gaming at 50%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

LPH Gaming

3 of 8 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors maybe 51%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

LPH Gaming50%

maybe51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

LPH Gaming3 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares4,774

Combined PnL+$62.6

maybe5 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares1,745

Combined PnL+$71.55

LPH Gaming — 38%maybe — 62%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x4a1a27c4af018a874e97e551410953cb29e70208CTR	LPH Gamingavg 48.2¢	$2.1K	$2.2K	+$59.07	— 1-0 (1)
38 38791873984189	maybeavg 64.6¢	$323.21	$365	+$41.79	48% 2191-2368 (4559)
31 319113331313111	maybeavg 61.3¢	$335.5	$359.26	+$23.76	57% 110-82 (192)
SH shiifoo	maybeavg 61.4¢	$306.91	$317.49	+$10.58	62% 1362-828 (2190)
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fARB<$100	maybeavg 64.9¢	$368.98	$308.17	-$54.2	65% 101-54 (155)
└ maybe leg	maybeavg 64.9¢	$276.5	$215.28	-$61.22
└ LPH Gaming leg	LPH Gamingavg 44.4¢	$83.3	$92.89	+$7.02
NO NotJumpARB<$100	maybeavg 50¢	$262.5	$200.63	-$0.63	54% 439-373 (812)
└ maybe leg	maybeavg 50¢	$131.25	$132.56	+$1.31
└ LPH Gaming leg	LPH Gamingavg 50¢	$68.75	$68.06	-$1.94
poshposh	maybeavg 70.7¢	$173.66	$169.46	-$4.2	47% 522-581 (1103)
0X 0xd37d84a14d70ac7300defe9997074b3b3fd7c70CTR<$100	LPH Gamingavg 42¢	$84	$90	+$6	—
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	LPH Gamingavg 38.8¢	$50.78	$48.3	-$2.47	37% 534-922 (1456)
SE sentrio<$100	maybeavg 60¢	$31.93	$31.54	-$0.39	41% 544-784 (1328)

0x4a1a27c4af018a874e97e551410953cb29e70208CTR

LPH Gaming

Invested

$2,146.5

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$59.07

Record

—

1-0 (1)

38791873984189

maybe

Invested

$323.21

Value

$365

PnL

+$41.79

Record

48%

2191-2368 (4559)

319113331313111

maybe

Invested

$335.5

Value

$359.26

PnL

+$23.76

Record

57%

110-82 (192)

shiifoo

maybe

Invested

$306.91

Value

$317.49

PnL

+$10.58

Record

62%

1362-828 (2190)

0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fARB<$100

maybe

Invested

$368.98

Value

$308.17

PnL

-$54.2

Record

65%

101-54 (155)

Both legs:

maybe$276.564.9¢-$61.22

LPH Gaming$83.344.4¢+$7.02

NotJumpARB<$100

maybe

Invested

$262.5

Value

$200.63

PnL

-$0.63

Record

54%

439-373 (812)

Both legs:

maybe$131.2550¢+$1.31

LPH Gaming$68.7550¢-$1.94

poshposh

maybe

Invested

$173.66

Value

$169.46

PnL

-$4.2

Record

47%

522-581 (1103)

0xd37d84a14d70ac7300defe9997074b3b3fd7c70CTR<$100

LPH Gaming

Invested

$84

Value

$90

PnL

+$6

Record

—

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

LPH Gaming

Invested

$50.78

Value

$48.3

PnL

-$2.47

Record

37%

534-922 (1456)

sentrio<$100

maybe

Invested

$31.93

Value

$31.54

PnL

-$0.39

Record

41%

544-784 (1328)

Research grade

NeutralLPH Gaming at 50%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

LPH Gaming

3 of 8 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors maybe 51%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that LPH Gaming wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance51.7%

49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$93.24

Max Loss

-$100.00

193.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.