Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Lilmix, while the market favors Dark Moon (100%). 2 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs Dark Moon (BO3) - Exort Fiesta Group Stage
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Lilmix (33%) · Lilmix at 0.1¢ · $4K held · ends Oct 30
⚠️
Avoid
Lilmix
6
Lilmix 33%
$3.8K
$428.87
41.4¢ → 0.1¢
-100% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidLilmix at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Dark Moon 100%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
20 0x2018...0e63CTR | Lilmixavg 43¢ | $2.6K | $3.0K | +$420 | 63% 15-9 (24) |
 daddyradar | Dark Moonavg 61¢ | $475.93 | $499.33 | +$23.41 | 66% 78-41 (119) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR | Lilmixavg 19.9¢ | $91.04 | $123.59 | +$32.56 | 38% 3184-5183 (8367) |
 poshposh | Dark Moonavg 75.4¢ | $130.3 | $88.94 | -$41.36 | 59% 9909-6885 (16794) |
0D 0x0d2d...7ff5<$100 | Dark Moonavg 54¢ | $56.32 | $52.15 | -$4.17 | 46% 7925-9338 (17263) |
US User7429<$100 | Dark Moonavg 85¢ | $3.79 | $2.23 | -$1.56 | 55% 8237-6651 (14888) |
Invested
$2,580
Value
$3.0K
PnL
+$420
Record
63%
15-9 (24)
daddyradarInvested
$475.93
Value
$499.33
PnL
+$23.41
Record
66%
78-41 (119)
Invested
$91.04
Value
$123.59
PnL
+$32.56
Record
38%
3184-5183 (8367)
poshposhInvested
$130.3
Value
$88.94
PnL
-$41.36
Record
59%
9909-6885 (16794)
Invested
$56.32
Value
$52.15
PnL
-$4.17
Record
46%
7925-9338 (17263)
Invested
$3.79
Value
$2.23
PnL
-$1.56
Record
55%
8237-6651 (14888)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.