Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Legacy, while the market favors FURIA (65%). 3 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Legacy (50%) · Legacy at 36¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
Legacy
6
Legacy 50%
$6.2K
$65.03
34¢ → 35.5¢
+4% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralLegacy at 36%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors FURIA 65%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on Legacy. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 jodarCTR | Legacyavg 34¢ | $4.2K | $4.3K | +$62 | — 1-15 (16) |
0X 0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255F | FURIAavg 64.8¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | -$7.57 | 53% 120-105 (225) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Legacyavg 34¢ | $271.99 | $275.99 | +$4 | 48% 220-236 (456) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | FURIAavg 61.1¢ | $62.15 | $67.08 | +$4.94 | 47% 781-864 (1645) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Legacyavg 35.3¢ | $29.85 | $12.6 | +$1.17 | 51% 265-255 (520) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | FURIAavg 60¢ | $5 | $5.5 | +$0.5 | 41% 3010-4414 (7424) |
jodarCTRInvested
$4,216
Value
$4.3K
PnL
+$62
Record
—
1-15 (16)
Invested
$1,543.11
Value
$1.5K
PnL
-$7.57
Record
53%
120-105 (225)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$271.99
Value
$275.99
PnL
+$4
Record
48%
220-236 (456)
Invested
$62.15
Value
$67.08
PnL
+$4.94
Record
47%
781-864 (1645)
Invested
$29.85
Value
$12.6
PnL
+$1.17
Record
51%
265-255 (520)
Invested
$5
Value
$5.5
PnL
+$0.5
Record
41%
3010-4414 (7424)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
35.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.