Counter-Strike: Luminosity vs HOTU (BO3) - Tesla Cup Group B
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Luminosity (50%) · Luminosity at 55¢ · $24K held · ends Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
Luminosity
4
Luminosity 50%
$23.7K
$30.78
54¢ → 54.5¢
+1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralLuminosity at 55%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
WI Wiretransferxyz | Luminosityavg 54¢ | $14.1K | $14.2K | +$130.81 | 53% 738-646 (1384) |
JA jakepaulthegoat2008CTR | HOTUavg 46¢ | $9.2K | $9.1K | -$100 | 49% 7229-7376 (14605) |
MA manoamano | Luminosityavg 55¢ | $195.76 | $193.98 | -$1.78 | 51% 429-417 (846) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | HOTUavg 45¢ | $157.49 | $157.49 | +$1.75 | 58% 40372-29160 (69532) |
Invested
$14,110.64
Value
$14.2K
PnL
+$130.81
Record
53%
738-646 (1384)
Invested
$9,200
Value
$9.1K
PnL
-$100
Record
49%
7229-7376 (14605)
Invested
$195.76
Value
$193.98
PnL
-$1.78
Record
51%
429-417 (846)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$157.49
Value
$157.49
PnL
+$1.75
Record
58%
40372-29160 (69532)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.