Counter-Strike: Luminosity vs Envy (BO3) - Tesla Cup Group B

3 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Luminosity (23%) · Luminosity at 54¢ · $90K held · ends Oct 28

Luminosity54¢Envy46¢Ends Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Luminosity

Consensus Traders

Luminosity 23%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$89.6K

Combined PnL

$257.15

Smart Money Entry

56.9¢ → 53.5¢

-6% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralLuminosity at 54%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Luminosity

3 of 13 top traders (23%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Luminosity54%

Envy47%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Luminosity3 traders

Total Value$60.0K

Total Shares106,181

Combined PnL-$430.18

Envy10 traders

Total Value$27.4K

Total Shares61,529

Combined PnL+$687.33

Luminosity — 23%Envy — 77%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LL lllllllIlll	Luminosityavg 57¢	$57.9K	$57.4K	-$494.56	55% 289-236 (525)
JA jakepaulthegoat2008CTR	Envyavg 43¢	$21.6K	$21.8K	+$252.37	50% 7255-7398 (14653)
VI vibing123	Luminosityavg 55¢	$2.4K	$2.5K	+$65.51	52% 1544-1428 (2972)
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fARB<$100	Envyavg 59¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	-$30.5	53% 2204-1969 (4173)
└ Envy leg	Envyavg 59¢	$1.3K	$1.1K	-$261.77
└ Luminosity leg	Luminosityavg 40.6¢	$784.88	$1.0K	+$231.26
SatanishippieCTR	Envyavg 44.9¢	$2.1K	$2.0K	-$67.11	48% 300-322 (622)
VeryLucky888CTR	Envyavg 42.9¢	$698.65	$1.1K	+$449.68	58% 40758-29479 (70237)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR	Envyavg 43¢	$860	$870	+$10	47% 2407-2692 (5099)
NO nobody2somebodyCTR	Envyavg 43¢	$860	$870	+$10	52% 614-574 (1188)
BI BillBenter2026CTR	Envyavg 56¢	$369.6	$402.6	+$33	58% 18402-13504 (31906)
AM ameisgoat11ARB<$100	Envyavg 60.1¢	$196.75	$184.6	-$12.15	47% 2054-2350 (4404)
└ Envy leg	Envyavg 60.1¢	$162.41	$136.36	-$26.05
└ Luminosity leg	Luminosityavg 35.2¢	$34.34	$48.24	+$13.91
0X 0x14cA946e75D59b8B7EbE21110512f7b885d78F43-1769608890569CTR	Envyavg 51¢	$146.88	$151.2	+$4.32	46% 888-1059 (1947)
Mr.Ape	Luminosityavg 53¢	$119.25	$118.13	-$1.13	56% 717-562 (1279)
US User7429CTR<$100	Envyavg 56.4¢	$47.05	$32.84	-$5.51	55% 8103-6544 (14647)
0X 0x4f2CTR<$100	Envyavg 52.2¢	$24.11	$24.24	+$0.12	52% 9103-8501 (17604)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Envyavg 55.8¢	$5.41	$5.86	+$0.45	53% 3056-2718 (5774)

lllllllIlll

Luminosity

Invested

$57,892.23

Value

$57.4K

PnL

-$494.56

Record

55%

289-236 (525)

jakepaulthegoat2008CTR

Envy

Invested

$21,566.47

Value

$21.8K

PnL

+$252.37

Record

50%

7255-7398 (14653)

vibing123

Luminosity

Invested

$2,401.92

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$65.51

Record

52%

1544-1428 (2972)

0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fARB<$100

Envy

Invested

$2,130.74

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$30.5

Record

53%

2204-1969 (4173)

Both legs:

Envy$1,345.8659¢-$261.77

Luminosity$784.8840.6¢+$231.26

SatanishippieCTR

Envy

Invested

$2,100

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$67.11

Record

48%

300-322 (622)

VeryLucky888CTR

Envy

Invested

$698.65

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$449.68

Record

58%

40758-29479 (70237)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR

Envy

Invested

$860

Value

$870

PnL

+$10

Record

47%

2407-2692 (5099)

nobody2somebodyCTR

Envy

Invested

$860

Value

$870

PnL

+$10

Record

52%

614-574 (1188)

BillBenter2026CTR

Envy

Invested

$369.6

Value

$402.6

PnL

+$33

Record

58%

18402-13504 (31906)

ameisgoat11ARB<$100

Envy

Invested

$196.75

Value

$184.6

PnL

-$12.15

Record

47%

2054-2350 (4404)

Both legs:

Envy$162.4160.1¢-$26.05

Luminosity$34.3435.2¢+$13.91

0x14cA946e75D59b8B7EbE21110512f7b885d78F43-1769608890569CTR

Envy

Invested

$146.88

Value

$151.2

PnL

+$4.32

Record

46%

888-1059 (1947)

Mr.Ape

Luminosity

Invested

$119.25

Value

$118.13

PnL

-$1.13

Record

56%

717-562 (1279)

User7429CTR<$100

Envy

Invested

$47.05

Value

$32.84

PnL

-$5.51

Record

55%

8103-6544 (14647)

0x4f2CTR<$100

Envy

Invested

$24.11

Value

$24.24

PnL

+$0.12

Record

52%

9103-8501 (17604)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Envy

Invested

$5.41

Value

$5.86

PnL

+$0.45

Record

53%

3056-2718 (5774)

Research grade

NeutralLuminosity at 54%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Luminosity

3 of 13 top traders (23%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Luminosity wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.7%

53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$79.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

179.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.