Counter-Strike: Leo Team vs The Last Resort - Map 2 Winner

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Leo Team (50%) · Leo Team at 85¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 15

Leo Team85¢The Last Resort15¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Leo Team

Consensus Traders

Leo Team 50%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.5K

Combined PnL

$27.6

Smart Money Entry

67.6¢ → 84.5¢

+25% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralLeo Team at 85%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Leo Team

4 of 8 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Leo Team85%

The Last Resort16%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

The Last Resort4 traders

Total Value$367.41

Total Shares707

Combined PnL+$6.06

Leo Team4 traders

Total Value$529.72

Total Shares706

Combined PnL+$21.54

The Last Resort — 50%Leo Team — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fARB<$100	Leo Teamavg 81.3¢	$409.73	$415.83	+$6.1	61% 196-125 (321)
└ Leo Team leg	Leo Teamavg 81.3¢	$309.33	$272.29	-$37.04
└ The Last Resort leg	The Last Resortavg 19.9¢	$100.4	$143.54	+$43.14
NO NotJumpCTR	The Last Resortavg 50¢	$262.5	$262.5	+$0	50% 1112-1113 (2225)
0X 0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255F	Leo Teamavg 63.9¢	$205.09	$219.79	+$14.7	55% 174-144 (318)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846	Leo Teamavg 69.1¢	$177.49	$195.48	+$17.99	41% 718-1033 (1751)
31 319113331313111ARB<$100	Leo Teamavg 70.1¢	$165.16	$184.56	+$19.4	55% 202-164 (366)
└ Leo Team leg	Leo Teamavg 70.1¢	$90.49	$100.66	+$10.17
└ The Last Resort leg	The Last Resortavg 19.6¢	$74.67	$83.9	+$9.23
Future-Tarot-Trader	Leo Teamavg 73.4¢	$328.37	$109.55	-$11.56	55% 162-133 (295)
CR crabfavorCTR<$100	The Last Resortavg 29¢	$51.68	$52.57	+$0.89	57% 115-86 (201)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	The Last Resortavg 19.4¢	$46.88	$44.46	-$2.42	39% 1554-2430 (3984)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	The Last Resortavg 27.6¢	$15.63	$7.88	+$7.59	38% 3804-6225 (10029)
LR lryyy<$100	Leo Teamavg 90¢	$4.5	$4.9	+$0.4	45% 963-1156 (2119)

0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fARB<$100

Leo Team

Invested

$409.73

Value

$415.83

PnL

+$6.1

Record

61%

196-125 (321)

Both legs:

Leo Team$309.3381.3¢-$37.04

The Last Resort$100.419.9¢+$43.14

NotJumpCTR

The Last Resort

Invested

$262.5

Value

$262.5

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

1112-1113 (2225)

0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255F

Leo Team

Invested

$205.09

Value

$219.79

PnL

+$14.7

Record

55%

174-144 (318)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846

Leo Team

Invested

$177.49

Value

$195.48

PnL

+$17.99

Record

41%

718-1033 (1751)

319113331313111ARB<$100

Leo Team

Invested

$165.16

Value

$184.56

PnL

+$19.4

Record

55%

202-164 (366)

Both legs:

Leo Team$90.4970.1¢+$10.17

The Last Resort$74.6719.6¢+$9.23

Future-Tarot-Trader

Leo Team

Invested

$328.37

Value

$109.55

PnL

-$11.56

Record

55%

162-133 (295)

crabfavorCTR<$100

The Last Resort

Invested

$51.68

Value

$52.57

PnL

+$0.89

Record

57%

115-86 (201)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

The Last Resort

Invested

$46.88

Value

$44.46

PnL

-$2.42

Record

39%

1554-2430 (3984)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

The Last Resort

Invested

$15.63

Value

$7.88

PnL

+$7.59

Record

38%

3804-6225 (10029)

lryyy<$100

Leo Team

Invested

$4.5

Value

$4.9

PnL

+$0.4

Record

45%

963-1156 (2119)

Research grade

NeutralLeo Team at 85%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Leo Team

4 of 8 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Leo Team wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance86.1%

84.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$16.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

116.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.