Counter-Strike: Lavked vs DNK - Map 1 Winner

5 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold DNK (45%) · DNK at 89¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 12

Lavked11¢DNK89¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

DNK

Consensus Traders

DNK 45%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.9K

Combined PnL

$178.9

Smart Money Entry

57.9¢ → 89¢

+54% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralDNK at 89%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

DNK

5 of 11 top traders (45%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Lavked11%

DNK89%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

DNK5 traders

Total Value$2.8K

Total Shares2,910

Combined PnL+$297.83

Lavked6 traders

Total Value$927.58

Total Shares1,848

Combined PnL-$118.92

DNK — 45%Lavked — 55%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f	DNKavg 61.1¢	$1.1K	$946.12	-$151.26	64% 93-53 (146)
latvian.demon	DNKavg 39.8¢	$422.43	$943.89	+$521.46	7% 35-442 (477)
VeryLucky888CTR	Lavkedavg 61.2¢	$734.75	$684	-$50.75	52% 754-704 (1458)
31 319113331313111	DNKavg 85.1¢	$2.6K	$670.31	-$175.26	57% 104-80 (184)
TO topdogbigboiARB<$100	Lavkedavg 35.1¢	$261.04	$185.43	-$75.61	37% 527-909 (1436)
└ Lavked leg	Lavkedavg 35.1¢	$220.9	$103.8	-$117.1
└ DNK leg	DNKavg 41.1¢	$40.14	$81.63	+$41.49
LI Liquidifier	DNKavg 40.2¢	$78.39	$173.54	+$95.15	13% 13-88 (101)
poshposhCTR	Lavkedavg 47.4¢	$207.72	$155.72	-$52	47% 509-574 (1083)
Future-Tarot-Trader	DNKavg 76.2¢	$481.74	$51.86	+$7.74	49% 83-88 (171)
38 38791873984189CTR	Lavkedavg 41.6¢	$200.58	$40.8	-$8.42	48% 2153-2339 (4492)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Lavkedavg 61.8¢	$24.99	$21.84	-$3.14	40% 3250-4894 (8144)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Lavkedavg 50.2¢	$19.07	$16.34	-$2.73	44% 375-478 (853)
SH shiifooCTR<$100	Lavkedavg 43¢	$10.75	$8.87	-$1.87	62% 1362-827 (2189)

0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f

DNK

Invested

$1,097.38

Value

$946.12

PnL

-$151.26

Record

64%

93-53 (146)

latvian.demon

DNK

Invested

$422.43

Value

$943.89

PnL

+$521.46

Record

35-442 (477)

VeryLucky888CTR

Lavked

Invested

$734.75

Value

$684

PnL

-$50.75

Record

52%

754-704 (1458)

319113331313111

DNK

Invested

$2,645.72

Value

$670.31

PnL

-$175.26

Record

57%

104-80 (184)

topdogbigboiARB<$100

Lavked

Invested

$261.04

Value

$185.43

PnL

-$75.61

Record

37%

527-909 (1436)

Both legs:

Lavked$220.935.1¢-$117.1

DNK$40.1441.1¢+$41.49

Liquidifier

DNK

Invested

$78.39

Value

$173.54

PnL

+$95.15

Record

13%

13-88 (101)

poshposhCTR

Lavked

Invested

$207.72

Value

$155.72

PnL

-$52

Record

47%

509-574 (1083)

Future-Tarot-Trader

DNK

Invested

$481.74

Value

$51.86

PnL

+$7.74

Record

49%

83-88 (171)

38791873984189CTR

Lavked

Invested

$200.58

Value

$40.8

PnL

-$8.42

Record

48%

2153-2339 (4492)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Lavked

Invested

$24.99

Value

$21.84

PnL

-$3.14

Record

40%

3250-4894 (8144)

lryyyCTR<$100

Lavked

Invested

$19.07

Value

$16.34

PnL

-$2.73

Record

44%

375-478 (853)

shiifooCTR<$100

Lavked

Invested

$10.75

Value

$8.87

PnL

-$1.87

Record

62%

1362-827 (2189)

Research grade

NeutralDNK at 89%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

DNK

5 of 11 top traders (45%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that DNK wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.5%

89.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$10.56

Max Loss

-$100.00

110.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.