Counter-Strike: Isurus vs RED Canids Academy (BO3) - CCT South America Group Stage
1 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Isurus (17%) · Isurus at 57¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 11
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Neutral
Isurus
6
Isurus 17%
$4.3K
$156.15
Research grade
NeutralIsurus at 57%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 6 top traders (17%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
20% of non-arb traders are on Isurus. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255F | Isurusavg 54.2¢ | $3.5K | $3.7K | +$179.99 | 53% 120-105 (225) |
BI biying88888CTR | RED Canids Academyavg 43.4¢ | $364.51 | $344.62 | -$19.89 | 27% 62-168 (230) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | RED Canids Academyavg 43.3¢ | $237.91 | $175.46 | -$2.66 | 48% 208-228 (436) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100 | RED Canids Academyavg 43¢ | $87.94 | $86.92 | -$1.02 | 34% 162-314 (476) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | RED Canids Academyavg 43.7¢ | $3.91 | $3.62 | -$0.29 | 50% 1378-1396 (2774) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | RED Canids Academyavg 40¢ | $2 | $2.02 | +$0.02 | 29% 155-375 (530) |
Invested
$3,490.28
Value
$3.7K
PnL
+$179.99
Record
53%
120-105 (225)
Invested
$364.51
Value
$344.62
PnL
-$19.89
Record
27%
62-168 (230)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$237.91
Value
$175.46
PnL
-$2.66
Record
48%
208-228 (436)
Invested
$87.94
Value
$86.92
PnL
-$1.02
Record
34%
162-314 (476)
Invested
$3.91
Value
$3.62
PnL
-$0.29
Record
50%
1378-1396 (2774)
Invested
$2
Value
$2.02
PnL
+$0.02
Record
29%
155-375 (530)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
57.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255F
Isurus — $3.7K
biying88888
CTRRED Canids Academy — $344.62
VeryLucky888
CTRRED Canids Academy — $175.46
omnibus-076daa
CTRRED Canids Academy — $86.92
Flaznorp
CTRRED Canids Academy — $3.62
sentrio
CTRRED Canids Academy — $2.02