Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Iberian Soul, while the market favors FORZE Reload (71%). 7 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Counter-Strike: Iberian Soul vs FORZE Reload - Map 2 Winner

7 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Iberian Soul (58%) · Iberian Soul at 30¢ · $9K held · ends Nov 14

Iberian Soul30¢FORZE Reload70¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Iberian Soul

Consensus Traders

Iberian Soul 58%

6 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.5K

Combined PnL

$287.15

Smart Money Entry

59.1¢ → 29.5¢

-50% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidIberian Soul at 30%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Iberian Soul

7 of 12 top traders (58%)Underdog side (market favors FORZE Reload 71%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Iberian Soul30%

FORZE Reload71%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

FORZE Reload5 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares2,383

Combined PnL+$865.13

Iberian Soul7 traders

Total Value$682.57

Total Shares2,011

Combined PnL-$577.99

FORZE Reload — 42%Iberian Soul — 58%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Iberian Soulavg 55.5¢	$4.3K	$4.7K	+$457.76	56% 4060-3170 (7230)
└ FORZE Reload leg	FORZE Reloadavg 36.5¢	$1.7K	$3.6K	+$1.9K
└ Iberian Soul leg	Iberian Soulavg 55.5¢	$2.5K	$1.1K	$-1.4K
0X 0x61A8D4b326218a2Fd2AbD32b0670b16bA2F41Ad4-1785951411525	FORZE Reloadavg 26.1¢	$397.5	$1.1K	+$677.53	46% 12-14 (26)
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fARB<$100	Iberian Soulavg 62.1¢	$757.4	$751.41	-$5.99	60% 158-104 (262)
└ FORZE Reload leg	FORZE Reloadavg 38.7¢	$290.8	$529.79	+$238.99
└ Iberian Soul leg	Iberian Soulavg 62.1¢	$466.6	$221.62	-$244.98
31 319113331313111	FORZE Reloadavg 44.1¢	$425.01	$594.37	+$169.36	57% 176-135 (311)
BI BillBenter2026CTR	Iberian Soulavg 60¢	$918.84	$451.65	-$467.2	29% 241-579 (820)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Iberian Soulavg 49.2¢	$285	$285.75	+$0.75	52% 820-759 (1579)
└ Iberian Soul leg	Iberian Soulavg 49.2¢	$153.75	$145.31	-$8.44
└ FORZE Reload leg	FORZE Reloadavg 50¢	$131.25	$140.44	+$9.19
KA KaczkaCTR	Iberian Soulavg 60¢	$202	$183.48	-$18.52	4% 7-190 (197)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Iberian Soulavg 55¢	$136.79	$167.91	+$31.12	50% 2523-2479 (5002)
└ FORZE Reload leg	FORZE Reloadavg 31.3¢	$60.32	$103.2	+$42.88
└ Iberian Soul leg	Iberian Soulavg 55¢	$76.48	$64.71	-$11.77
SE seeeeeebARB<$100	Iberian Soulavg 57.9¢	$163.16	$122	+$2.36	48% 491-532 (1023)
└ FORZE Reload leg	FORZE Reloadavg 40.8¢	$48.68	$84.04	+$35.36
└ Iberian Soul leg	Iberian Soulavg 57.9¢	$74.44	$37.96	-$33
CR crabfavorARB<$100	Iberian Soulavg 70¢	$153.44	$78.32	-$64.53	57% 95-71 (166)
└ Iberian Soul leg	Iberian Soulavg 70¢	$113.04	$47.64	-$71.28
└ FORZE Reload leg	FORZE Reloadavg 55¢	$23.94	$30.68	+$6.75
PA pauleta23<$100	FORZE Reloadavg 40.6¢	$57.68	$50.86	+$17.53	40% 433-650 (1083)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	FORZE Reloadavg 52¢	$25	$25.24	+$0.24	38% 544-884 (1428)
PA panpidaras1CTR<$100	Iberian Soulavg 63¢	$40	$18.73	-$21.27	14% 48-291 (339)
Future-Tarot-TraderCTR	Iberian Soulavg 30.2¢	$170.61	$17.07	-$82.93	55% 145-117 (262)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Iberian Soulavg 52¢	$5	$5.48	+$0.48	39% 3649-5778 (9427)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Iberian Soulavg 43¢	$4.73	$5.12	+$0.38	45% 805-991 (1796)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	FORZE Reloadavg 34¢	$4.53	$5	+$0.47	37% 1028-1723 (2751)
VeryLucky888CTR	Iberian Soulavg 51.3¢	$205	$1.05	+$11.06	53% 1351-1180 (2531)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Iberian Soul

Invested

$4,251.09

Value

$4.7K

PnL

+$457.76

Record

56%

4060-3170 (7230)

Both legs:

FORZE Reload$1,738.5436.5¢+$1.9K

Iberian Soul$2,512.5555.5¢$-1.4K

0x61A8D4b326218a2Fd2AbD32b0670b16bA2F41Ad4-1785951411525

FORZE Reload

Invested

$397.5

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$677.53

Record

46%

12-14 (26)

0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fARB<$100

Iberian Soul

Invested

$757.4

Value

$751.41

PnL

-$5.99

Record

60%

158-104 (262)

Both legs:

FORZE Reload$290.838.7¢+$238.99

Iberian Soul$466.662.1¢-$244.98

319113331313111

FORZE Reload

Invested

$425.01

Value

$594.37

PnL

+$169.36

Record

57%

176-135 (311)

BillBenter2026CTR

Iberian Soul

Invested

$918.84

Value

$451.65

PnL

-$467.2

Record

29%

241-579 (820)

NotJumpARB<$100

Iberian Soul

Invested

$285

Value

$285.75

PnL

+$0.75

Record

52%

820-759 (1579)

Both legs:

Iberian Soul$153.7549.2¢-$8.44

FORZE Reload$131.2550¢+$9.19

KaczkaCTR

Iberian Soul

Invested

$202

Value

$183.48

PnL

-$18.52

Record

7-190 (197)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Iberian Soul

Invested

$136.79

Value

$167.91

PnL

+$31.12

Record

50%

2523-2479 (5002)

Both legs:

FORZE Reload$60.3231.3¢+$42.88

Iberian Soul$76.4855¢-$11.77

seeeeeebARB<$100

Iberian Soul

Invested

$163.16

Value

$122

PnL

+$2.36

Record

48%

491-532 (1023)

Both legs:

FORZE Reload$48.6840.8¢+$35.36

Iberian Soul$74.4457.9¢-$33

crabfavorARB<$100

Iberian Soul

Invested

$153.44

Value

$78.32

PnL

-$64.53

Record

57%

95-71 (166)

Both legs:

Iberian Soul$113.0470¢-$71.28

FORZE Reload$23.9455¢+$6.75

pauleta23<$100

FORZE Reload

Invested

$57.68

Value

$50.86

PnL

+$17.53

Record

40%

433-650 (1083)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

FORZE Reload

Invested

$25

Value

$25.24

PnL

+$0.24

Record

38%

544-884 (1428)

panpidaras1CTR<$100

Iberian Soul

Invested

$40

Value

$18.73

PnL

-$21.27

Record

14%

48-291 (339)

Future-Tarot-TraderCTR

Iberian Soul

Invested

$170.61

Value

$17.07

PnL

-$82.93

Record

55%

145-117 (262)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Iberian Soul

Invested

Value

$5.48

PnL

+$0.48

Record

39%

3649-5778 (9427)

lryyyCTR<$100

Iberian Soul

Invested

$4.73

Value

$5.12

PnL

+$0.38

Record

45%

805-991 (1796)

topdogbigboi<$100

FORZE Reload

Invested

$4.53

Value

PnL

+$0.47

Record

37%

1028-1723 (2751)

VeryLucky888CTR

Iberian Soul

Invested

$205

Value

$1.05

PnL

+$11.06

Record

53%

1351-1180 (2531)

Research grade

AvoidIberian Soul at 30%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Iberian Soul

7 of 12 top traders (58%)Underdog side (market favors FORZE Reload 71%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Iberian Soul wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance31.6%

29.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$216.86

Max Loss

-$100.00

316.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.