Counter-Strike: Iberian Soul vs FORZE Reload (BO3) - CCT Europe Playoffs

3 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Iberian Soul (25%) · Iberian Soul at 60¢ · $26K held · ends Nov 14

Iberian Soul60¢FORZE Reload40¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Iberian Soul

Consensus Traders

Iberian Soul 25%

Total Value

$25.7K

Combined PnL

$215.2

Smart Money Entry

59.9¢ → 59.5¢

-1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralIberian Soul at 60%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Iberian Soul

3 of 12 top traders (25%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Iberian Soul60%

FORZE Reload41%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Iberian Soul3 traders

Total Value$16.3K

Total Shares26,891

Combined PnL+$161.19

FORZE Reload9 traders

Total Value$9.4K

Total Shares23,315

Combined PnL+$54

Iberian Soul — 25%FORZE Reload — 75%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Iberian Soul. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperFORZE Reload 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrFORZE Reload 57% · 7

Diverging

Top 1000FORZE Reload 63% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LL lllllllIlll	Iberian Soulavg 60¢	$15.0K	$15.1K	+$125	3% 6-206 (212)
0X 0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255FCTR	FORZE Reloadavg 40¢	$8.1K	$8.2K	+$101	55% 164-133 (297)
WI Wiretransferxyz	Iberian Soulavg 58¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$36.19	56% 390-306 (696)
JU JuiceFarmCTR	FORZE Reloadavg 42¢	$629.28	$585	-$44.28	59% 43-30 (73)
fyrskenCTR	FORZE Reloadavg 40¢	$280	$283.5	+$3.5	52% 55-51 (106)
poshposhCTR	FORZE Reloadavg 40¢	$171.82	$167.52	-$4.3	48% 1092-1167 (2259)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	FORZE Reloadavg 40¢	$80	$78	-$2	37% 1016-1695 (2711)
PU purplegattoCTR<$100	FORZE Reloadavg 40¢	$64.64	$65.44	+$0.81	68% 2645-1232 (3877)
MA manoamano<$100	Iberian Soulavg 60¢	$49.06	$49.06	+$0	55% 29-24 (53)
FU Fund01CTR<$100	FORZE Reloadavg 40¢	$46.1	$45.55	-$0.55	— 6-4 (10)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	FORZE Reloadavg 40¢	$8	$7.8	-$0.2	50% 1583-1605 (3188)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	FORZE Reloadavg 40¢	$1.99	$2.01	+$0.02	46% 481-571 (1052)

lllllllIlll

Iberian Soul

Invested

$14,999.97

Value

$15.1K

PnL

+$125

Record

6-206 (212)

0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255FCTR

FORZE Reload

Invested

$8,079.75

Value

$8.2K

PnL

+$101

Record

55%

164-133 (297)

Wiretransferxyz

Iberian Soul

Invested

$1,049.57

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$36.19

Record

56%

390-306 (696)

JuiceFarmCTR

FORZE Reload

Invested

$629.28

Value

$585

PnL

-$44.28

Record

59%

43-30 (73)

fyrskenCTR

FORZE Reload

Invested

$280

Value

$283.5

PnL

+$3.5

Record

52%

55-51 (106)

poshposhCTR

FORZE Reload

Invested

$171.82

Value

$167.52

PnL

-$4.3

Record

48%

1092-1167 (2259)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

FORZE Reload

Invested

$80

Value

$78

PnL

-$2

Record

37%

1016-1695 (2711)

purplegattoCTR<$100

FORZE Reload

Invested

$64.64

Value

$65.44

PnL

+$0.81

Record

68%

2645-1232 (3877)

manoamano<$100

Iberian Soul

Invested

$49.06

Value

$49.06

PnL

+$0

Record

55%

29-24 (53)

Fund01CTR<$100

FORZE Reload

Invested

$46.1

Value

$45.55

PnL

-$0.55

Record

—

6-4 (10)

Pan9XCTR<$100

FORZE Reload

Invested

Value

$7.8

PnL

-$0.2

Record

50%

1583-1605 (3188)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

FORZE Reload

Invested

$1.99

Value

$2.01

PnL

+$0.02

Record

46%

481-571 (1052)

Research grade

NeutralIberian Soul at 60%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Iberian Soul

3 of 12 top traders (25%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Iberian Soul. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperFORZE Reload 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrFORZE Reload 57% · 7

Diverging

Top 1000FORZE Reload 63% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Iberian Soul wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance61.7%

59.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$62.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

162.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.