Counter-Strike: ex-INOX Division vs Spirit Academy - Map 1 Winner
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Spirit Academy (100%) · Spirit Academy at 100¢ · $3K held · ends Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
Spirit Academy
5
Spirit Academy 100%
$2.9K
-$487.74
87.8¢ → 100¢
+14% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralSpirit Academy at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
D4 0xd487...053e | Spirit Academyavg 97.3¢ | $2.5K | $1.9K | -$539.94 | 97% 3253-113 (3366) |
 0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f | Spirit Academyavg 49.3¢ | $617.16 | $660.38 | +$43.22 | 53% 2324-2057 (4381) |
VP Vps1 | Spirit Academyavg 99.9¢ | $256.54 | $256.67 | +$0.13 | 96% 270-12 (282) |
 poshposh<$100 | Spirit Academyavg 58¢ | $24.54 | $32.16 | +$7.62 | 59% 9676-6661 (16337) |
SH shiifoo<$100 | Spirit Academyavg 59¢ | $5.9 | $6.22 | +$1.23 | 60% 3286-2206 (5492) |
Invested
$2,470.27
Value
$1.9K
PnL
-$539.94
Record
97%
3253-113 (3366)
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fInvested
$617.16
Value
$660.38
PnL
+$43.22
Record
53%
2324-2057 (4381)
Invested
$256.54
Value
$256.67
PnL
+$0.13
Record
96%
270-12 (282)
poshposh<$100Invested
$24.54
Value
$32.16
PnL
+$7.62
Record
59%
9676-6661 (16337)
Invested
$5.9
Value
$6.22
PnL
+$1.23
Record
60%
3286-2206 (5492)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.