Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Alliance, while the market favors ex-INOX Division (54%). 3 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Counter-Strike: ex-INOX Division vs Alliance - Map 1 Winner

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Alliance (38%) · Alliance at 47¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 14

ex-INOX Division54¢Alliance46¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Alliance

Consensus Traders

Alliance 38%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.1K

Combined PnL

-$305.69

Smart Money Entry

74.8¢ → 46.5¢

-38% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralAlliance at 47%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Alliance

3 of 8 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors ex-INOX Division 54%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

ex-INOX Division54%

Alliance47%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Alliance3 traders

Total Value$507.86

Total Shares1,184

Combined PnL-$377.05

ex-INOX Division5 traders

Total Value$642.77

Total Shares1,316

Combined PnL+$71.36

Alliance — 38%ex-INOX Division — 62%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fARB<$100	Allianceavg 70.5¢	$863.47	$898.43	+$34.96	61% 157-102 (259)
└ ex-INOX Division leg	ex-INOX Divisionavg 29¢	$277.1	$511.73	+$234.63
└ Alliance leg	Allianceavg 70.5¢	$586.37	$386.7	-$199.67
RI RichiddCTR	Allianceavg 77.2¢	$800	$419.84	-$380.16	52% 87-81 (168)
NO NotJump	ex-INOX Divisionavg 50¢	$262.5	$262.5	+$0	52% 815-747 (1562)
31 319113331313111	ex-INOX Divisionavg 34.9¢	$1.0K	$184.46	+$58.01	56% 174-134 (308)
GT gt7238	ex-INOX Divisionavg 25¢	$150	$165	+$15	8% 41-490 (531)
poshposhARB<$100	Allianceavg 64.8¢	$51.57	$57.92	+$6.35	48% 1104-1175 (2279)
└ Alliance leg	Allianceavg 64.8¢	$40.34	$31.44	-$8.9
└ ex-INOX Division leg	ex-INOX Divisionavg 21¢	$11.24	$26.48	+$15.25
38 38791873984189CTR	Allianceavg 57.7¢	$119.91	$53.56	+$3.65	48% 3205-3505 (6710)
KA KaczkaCTR<$100	Allianceavg 59.4¢	$35	$34.46	-$0.54	3% 6-189 (195)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	ex-INOX Divisionavg 27.5¢	$27.47	$25.5	-$1.97	37% 1022-1710 (2732)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	ex-INOX Divisionavg 39¢	$5	$5.32	+$0.32	39% 3645-5777 (9422)

0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fARB<$100

Alliance

Invested

$863.47

Value

$898.43

PnL

+$34.96

Record

61%

157-102 (259)

Both legs:

ex-INOX Division$277.129¢+$234.63

Alliance$586.3770.5¢-$199.67

RichiddCTR

Alliance

Invested

$800

Value

$419.84

PnL

-$380.16

Record

52%

87-81 (168)

NotJump

ex-INOX Division

Invested

$262.5

Value

$262.5

PnL

+$0

Record

52%

815-747 (1562)

319113331313111

ex-INOX Division

Invested

$1,009.61

Value

$184.46

PnL

+$58.01

Record

56%

174-134 (308)

gt7238

ex-INOX Division

Invested

$150

Value

$165

PnL

+$15

Record

41-490 (531)

poshposhARB<$100

Alliance

Invested

$51.57

Value

$57.92

PnL

+$6.35

Record

48%

1104-1175 (2279)

Both legs:

Alliance$40.3464.8¢-$8.9

ex-INOX Division$11.2421¢+$15.25

38791873984189CTR

Alliance

Invested

$119.91

Value

$53.56

PnL

+$3.65

Record

48%

3205-3505 (6710)

KaczkaCTR<$100

Alliance

Invested

$35

Value

$34.46

PnL

-$0.54

Record

6-189 (195)

topdogbigboi<$100

ex-INOX Division

Invested

$27.47

Value

$25.5

PnL

-$1.97

Record

37%

1022-1710 (2732)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

ex-INOX Division

Invested

Value

$5.32

PnL

+$0.32

Record

39%

3645-5777 (9422)

Research grade

NeutralAlliance at 47%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Alliance

3 of 8 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors ex-INOX Division 54%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Alliance wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance48.7%

46.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$105.14

Max Loss

-$100.00

205.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.