Counter-Strike: Imperial vs paiN (BO3) - Gamers Club Masters Group B
3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Imperial (38%) · Imperial at 71¢ · $49K held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Imperial
8
Imperial 38%
$48.6K
$365.9
71¢ → 70.5¢
-1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralImperial at 71%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
JA jakepaulthegoat2008 | Imperialavg 71¢ | $26.1K | $26.1K | -$0 | 50% 7307-7436 (14743) |
LL lllllllIlllCTR | paiNavg 28.9¢ | $14.9K | $15.0K | +$32.35 | 55% 299-249 (548) |
VI vibing123CTR | paiNavg 28¢ | $3.4K | $3.5K | +$180 | 52% 1561-1444 (3005) |
HU humbleboyCTR | paiNavg 28¢ | $2.4K | $2.5K | +$127.5 | 54% 511-427 (938) |
 hasobidale | Imperialavg 71¢ | $809.39 | $815.09 | +$5.7 | 66% 220-111 (331) |
GO GooooooollllllllllCTR | paiNavg 28¢ | $404.98 | $419.45 | +$14.46 | 50% 1231-1223 (2454) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | paiNavg 27.8¢ | $88.51 | $93.82 | +$5.31 | 46% 7951-9381 (17332) |
 JohnLKellyJr<$100 | Imperialavg 70¢ | $81.32 | $81.9 | +$0.58 | 52% 1222-1120 (2342) |
Invested
$26,145.69
Value
$26.1K
PnL
-$0
Record
50%
7307-7436 (14743)
Invested
$14,936.69
Value
$15.0K
PnL
+$32.35
Record
55%
299-249 (548)
Invested
$3,360
Value
$3.5K
PnL
+$180
Record
52%
1561-1444 (3005)
Invested
$2,379.99
Value
$2.5K
PnL
+$127.5
Record
54%
511-427 (938)
hasobidaleInvested
$809.39
Value
$815.09
PnL
+$5.7
Record
66%
220-111 (331)
Invested
$404.98
Value
$419.45
PnL
+$14.46
Record
50%
1231-1223 (2454)
Invested
$88.51
Value
$93.82
PnL
+$5.31
Record
46%
7951-9381 (17332)
JohnLKellyJr<$100Invested
$81.32
Value
$81.9
PnL
+$0.58
Record
52%
1222-1120 (2342)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
70.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.