Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Team Nemesis - Map 2 Winner

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Inner Circle Esports (67%) · Inner Circle Esports at 91¢ · $9K held · ends Oct 27

Inner Circle Esports91¢Team Nemesis9¢Ends Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Inner Circle Esports

Consensus Traders

Inner Circle Esports 67%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.1K

Combined PnL

$-1.3K

Smart Money Entry

78¢ → 90.5¢

+16% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralInner Circle Esports at 91%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Inner Circle Esports

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Inner Circle Esports91%

Team Nemesis10%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Inner Circle Esports4 traders

Total Value$6.5K

Total Shares9,744

Combined PnL$-1.4K

Team Nemesis2 traders

Total Value$234.7

Total Shares489

Combined PnL+$56.89

Inner Circle Esports — 67%Team Nemesis — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JohnLKellyJr	Inner Circle Esportsavg 76.5¢	$4.6K	$3.2K	$-1.5K	53% 1183-1056 (2239)
AA aaaa298	Inner Circle Esportsavg 82.5¢	$2.4K	$2.6K	+$168.24	58% 724-521 (1245)
PN pnhctARB<$100	Inner Circle Esportsavg 76¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	-$59.45	54% 435-376 (811)
└ Inner Circle Esports leg	Inner Circle Esportsavg 76¢	$938.06	$1.1K	+$154.29
└ Team Nemesis leg	Team Nemesisavg 17.9¢	$596.98	$383.25	-$213.73
RN1ARB<$100	Team Nemesisavg 21.9¢	$1.1K	$883.25	-$225.04	54% 55318-47360 (102678)
└ Inner Circle Esports leg	Inner Circle Esportsavg 73¢	$438	$531	+$93
└ Team Nemesis leg	Team Nemesisavg 21.9¢	$670.29	$352.25	-$318.04
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Inner Circle Esportsavg 78.6¢	$705.15	$677.22	-$27.93	52% 13478-12328 (25806)
poshposhCTR	Team Nemesisavg 36.4¢	$176.26	$232.3	+$56.04	60% 9086-6001 (15087)
BE berlinskies<$100	Inner Circle Esportsavg 57.4¢	$99.99	$90.55	-$9.44	58% 5718-4199 (9917)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Team Nemesisavg 31¢	$1.55	$2.4	+$0.85	36% 14577-26206 (40783)

JohnLKellyJr

Inner Circle Esports

Invested

$4,638.01

Value

$3.2K

PnL

$-1.5K

Record

53%

1183-1056 (2239)

aaaa298

Inner Circle Esports

Invested

$2,383.32

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$168.24

Record

58%

724-521 (1245)

pnhctARB<$100

Inner Circle Esports

Invested

$1,535.04

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$59.45

Record

54%

435-376 (811)

Both legs:

Inner Circle Esports$938.0676¢+$154.29

Team Nemesis$596.9817.9¢-$213.73

RN1ARB<$100

Team Nemesis

Invested

$1,108.29

Value

$883.25

PnL

-$225.04

Record

54%

55318-47360 (102678)

Both legs:

Inner Circle Esports$43873¢+$93

Team Nemesis$670.2921.9¢-$318.04

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Inner Circle Esports

Invested

$705.15

Value

$677.22

PnL

-$27.93

Record

52%

13478-12328 (25806)

poshposhCTR

Team Nemesis

Invested

$176.26

Value

$232.3

PnL

+$56.04

Record

60%

9086-6001 (15087)

berlinskies<$100

Inner Circle Esports

Invested

$99.99

Value

$90.55

PnL

-$9.44

Record

58%

5718-4199 (9917)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Team Nemesis

Invested

$1.55

Value

$2.4

PnL

+$0.85

Record

36%

14577-26206 (40783)

Research grade

NeutralInner Circle Esports at 91%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Inner Circle Esports

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Inner Circle Esports wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance91.9%

90.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

108.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.