Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold The Huns Esports, while the market favors HOTU (93%). 3 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Map Handicap: HOTU (-1.5) vs The Huns Esports (+1.5)
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold The Huns Esports (50%) · The Huns Esports at 7.5¢ · $16K held · ends Oct 31
⚠️
Avoid
The Huns Esports
6
The Huns Esports 50%
$16.5K
$5.3K
26¢ → 7.5¢
-71% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidThe Huns Esports at 8%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors HOTU 93%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LL lllllllIlllCTR | The Huns Esportsavg 26¢ | $7.4K | $13.7K | +$6.3K | 54% 302-256 (558) |
 JohnLKellyJr | HOTUavg 73¢ | $3.6K | $2.6K | $-1.0K | 52% 1243-1129 (2372) |
AS astapzippoCTR | The Huns Esportsavg 28.9¢ | $85.47 | $142.07 | +$56.6 | 56% 2148-1702 (3850) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | The Huns Esportsavg 30¢ | $27.65 | $44.24 | +$16.59 | 36% 15586-27535 (43121) |
OD Oddstorm<$100 | HOTUavg 70.6¢ | $19.16 | $15.64 | -$3.52 | 38% 417-667 (1084) |
GR Grool<$100 | HOTUavg 71¢ | $9.55 | $6.99 | -$2.56 | 54% 1617-1387 (3004) |
Invested
$7,408.15
Value
$13.7K
PnL
+$6.3K
Record
54%
302-256 (558)
JohnLKellyJrInvested
$3,644.26
Value
$2.6K
PnL
$-1.0K
Record
52%
1243-1129 (2372)
Invested
$85.47
Value
$142.07
PnL
+$56.6
Record
56%
2148-1702 (3850)
Invested
$27.65
Value
$44.24
PnL
+$16.59
Record
36%
15586-27535 (43121)
Invested
$19.16
Value
$15.64
PnL
-$3.52
Record
38%
417-667 (1084)
Invested
$9.55
Value
$6.99
PnL
-$2.56
Record
54%
1617-1387 (3004)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
7.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.